Thread by @Noahpinion

Among the points I made in my debate with @CarlZha:

1. China's neighbors mostly have negative opinions of China, because they're (justifiably) afraid of it

2. China's repression of the Uighurs is a bad sign about what kind of hegemon it would be

Carl basically argued that Chinese regional hegemony in Asia would be benign, citing the "tributary" system that prevailed in imperial times.

I expressed my doubts as to whether China's neighbors would like to be its tributaries.

Carl questions the sources that report 1,000,000 Uighurs imprisoned in camps in Xinjiang.

To which I reply: "Suppose it's only 500,000. Should we be less scared?"

Carl argues that what China is doing to the Uighurs shouldn't worry us, because it's only affecting Chinese citizens.

"What can the Chinese government do to us?", he asks. "Nothing!"

Needless to say, this doesn't make me feel better about it.

Carl's whole thesis is that China will be a peaceful, benevolent regional hegemon.

I bring up the fact that Chinese state media makes tons of bellicose threats against neighbors.

Carl: "Chinese state media says a lot of stupid shit."

Basically, Carl's belief that China will be a benevolent hegemon rests on the arguments that:

1. China's govt. will only do horrible things to people inside its borders, and

2. Chinese state media's threats are just hot air

Why am I not reassured by either of these?

So in conclusion I would say that this debate did not make me think China is any more likely to be a benevolent hegemon than I previously thought.

But don't take my word for it! Watch, and judge for yourself!

(end)