Thread by @Mark_E_Noonan

I have my flaws. I’m a bit overweight. My eyesight is poor. My right leg has been jacked up for decades and it’s constant pain (greater or lesser depending). I can’t carry a note in a bucket. But one attribute is razor sharp: my memory.

I don’t forget things. I can remember words and actions with precision. It isn’t vague. I remember the drive in the car to the beach with Mom and Dad and what we had to eat and what the old guy sitting next to us looked like. That was 1968. I was 3.

A bit of a curse in this is that every last mistake I’ve ever made is etched indelibly in my mind: as if it just happened. It’s a burden getting to forever relive the faux pas I committed in 1970. When I was 5. But, it is what it is. Why bring this up?

Because here and now in 2020 we’re being told to believe something which isn’t true. The polls and the experts are all on the same page about it: not just that Trump is doomed *but that they didn’t say this in 2016*. It’s a hell of a propaganda effort.

But me, Mr Memory, remembers. I remember 2016 as clearly as I remember cutting the cheese in 7th grade math. Both memories are equally crystal clear in my mind: and not just me, but what everyone else was doing both in 1977 and 2016. I remember every last one of you.

And just as everyone laughed at the fart, so was everyone *certain* that Trump *never had a chance* in 2016. The polls and the analysis and every last bit of reporting confirmed the assertion: Trump was going to get wiped out on Election Day. It wasn’t going to be close.

And while I had picked up some data which disputed the confident prediction, I tended to believe that they couldn’t all be wrong. That sort of uniformity of opinion could only come wrong if everyone was a fool or a liar. I figured at least 20% wouldn’t be.

So, I went to vote on Election Day, crossed my fingers and then relentlessly ignored the news until 4 pm Pacific. When I checked I expected to find data indicating a coming Hillary win. It took me about 5 minutes of looking at data to see Trump had it in the bag.

Certainly by 6 pm Pacific anyone with IQ above room temp knew it was over and yet *for hours* the Experts kept pretending it could change and confirm the confident predictions they had made *that afternoon*.

I was staggered! Honestly: I couldn’t believe at first how completely the fools had been suckered by the liars. But I at least figured the fools wouldn’t fall for it again. To be conned is no dishonor: to be conned twice by the same people in the exact same manner is impossible.

Or, so I thought. I’ve learned different. We now have the same fools saying the same things the liars told them in 2016 with the added absurdity of the fools pretending they don’t remember 2016! It is astonishing to behold!

Do you realize what mental gymnastics are required here? You know, for a fact, that you were conned in 2016 but now you’re repeating along with the liars, “Trump always had a good chance in 2016 but now in 2020 he’s doomed.”

FFS: you know that you, fool, said he had no chance in 2016. I remember you saying it. You remember, too. You did not forget. But now you’re going to tell me “I wasn’t actually wrong and I’m right now”. Geesh!

What will happen 11/3 is already baked in. The debates and ads and bombshells won’t change it: Trump is already re-elected or already defeated. Both he and Biden are known quantities and everyone has already made up their minds about them.

I happen to think that he’s already re-elected. No bit of data indicates any large number of Trump voters abandoning him and there’s plenty of data indicating that he’s picked up new votes since 2016. I expect a higher EC and pop vote total for him.

Could I be wrong? Of course! But if I’m wrong it’s because I misread the data, not because I listened to the same people who were wrong *all along* about 2016. This year I’ll start watching earlier than in 2016: I want to savor every moment of it.