Thread by @EdamDefense

THREAD by Dr. Can Kasapoglu about the Armenian MoD's claims as to an alleged Turkish F-16 in the hot zone; ++

Today, the Armenian military's spokesperson released a visual to support their claims about a 'ghost' Turkish F-16 taking part in the Azerbaijani operations. Here are some thoughts & suggestions; ++

From a military-technical standpoint, the airspace-picture & radar input presented by the Armenian MoD comes with many missing parts. The ‘evidence’ presented by the Armenian MoD offers no distinctive features as to the type of the aircraft. ++

A more advanced, military-grade radar input, though, could offer the necessary information about, and only, the type of the platforms in the area given their different radar-signatures (i.e. tanker, fighter, tactical bomber etc.) and speed. ++

To support their claims, the Armenian MoD would have to tell how they differentiated the alleged Turkish F-16 from other fighter aircraft in the area of operations, say, from possible Mig-29s of the Azerbaijani Air Force. ++

The most reliable way to do so would be scrambling one’s own fighter / interceptor aircraft. However, according to open-source military databases, the Armenian Air Force does not have any fighter / interceptor aircraft to accomplish such a task. ++

So, did you really scrambled a Su-25 to intercept an alleged F-16? If so, the commander, who gave such an order, would have to be subject to professional investigation as this would be a suicide mission. ++

Back in late 2019, however, it was reported that the Armenian Air Force received an unspecified number of Su-30s from the Russian Federation. ++

Well, they can get the scrambling & combat air patrol job done, only if Armenia really received them and only if they are operational at present. Is there any radio-communications proof between such assets and the Armenian ground command & control post? ++

Alternatively, we can check for the Russian version of the story. Yerevan and Moscow have a joint air defense deal for years. ++

And, there is a forward-deployed Mig-29 air-wing of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Armenia, augmented by advanced SAM systems and their related radars. Is there any Russian finding supporting the Armenian MoD’s claims as to an operating Turkish F-16 in the area of operations? ++

Besides, why the Armenian MoD did not care for detailing the story? What did the alleged Turkish F-16 used to down the Armenian Air Force’s Su-25? A beyond visual range missile? Or a within visual range one after a dog fight? ++

Did Armenian SAM systems engage the alleged F-16? Any operational records about that? The data presented by the Armenian MoD, reportedly, shows an E-7 loitering in the Turkish airspace. Indeed, Turkey has Boeing E-7 Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft in its arsenal. ++

And with a war going at Turkey’s doorstep, with an allied military – the Azerbaijani Armed Forces is involved – it is perfectly normal to fly such intelligence aircraft in the Turkish 3rd Field Army’s area of responsibility. ++

But, what is the correlation between Turkey flying one of its own intelligence assets over the Turkish principle and a ‘ghost’ F-16 over the hot zone? Even more worrisomely, the Armenian MoD should answer to themselves, if Yerevan has the full awareness over the conflict zone? ++

Does the Armenian Air Force know how many Azerbaijani platforms are flying now? Any Mig-29s?Any ideas about their payload configuration? How many drones are loitering over the hot zone? Their types? Are there any C-UAS assets deployed in the area to protect the Armenian forces?++

If no, how do you coordinate to prevent friendly-fire? ++

Unanswered, these questions would showcase that it is the Armenian politicians and military planners who are actually risking the lives of Armenian troops on the ground by insisting to pursue an unjust occupation and sending-in Armenian formations to ill-planned dead-ends.