Covid cases are lowest in places that at the peak had the fewest or the most covid deaths. @dannydorling Tony Brookes and I considered reasons for this
theconversation.com/why-are-corona…
1/n The pattern could be a chance quirk, or could reflect testing regimens being related to previous severity of the epidemic, or safer behavioural patterns in areas badly affected, or more homeworking being possible in such places (or a mix of the above)
2/n 2/n It could be that enough people in such areas have already come into contact with the virus that the population is now less susceptible to the disease. Overall, this would imply that the levels of some forms of immunity in those particular neighbourhoods are higher
3/n at a level that leads to a detetable reduction in the number of new cases.. Such immunity will not be all or none – making people completely unsusceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection – rather they would require more sustained, higher viral load exposure to become infected,
4/n or, if infected, show less symptoms and be less likely to be tested. Note this is not an all-or-none phenomena as is sometimes suggested by discussions of population immunity - will send additional short thread on this later
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