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This place is propaganda and disinfo. Be safe. I'll be elsewhere. #COVIDisAirborne 🌬️🔅-wear N95.

Oct 2, 2020, 13 tweets

Well here it is.

R0 for SARS-CoV-2 estimated at between 4.7 and 11, taking into consideration superspreading.

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…

Sanche way back said 2.5 to 3.5 but probably double when considering asymptomatics.

I said all this.

I said not to bother debating with droplet people ...

To note, higher numbers not new. Estimates of R0 for SARS-CoV-2 in the early days. Depends on how calc'd.

Here is ref:

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32052846/

Sorry had to dig it up.

From the original article:

Left: cases grow faster once superspreading starts.

Right: what percentage of spread is attributable to superspreading. Zero until it starts, then high, settling down at about 80% (note: that's what articles have said).

To note, R0 from contact tracing different from R0 calculated from physical things like virus shedding.

In fig, contact tracing says R0=2, but everything else 4 and up (that's using Ebola-like parameters).

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Oh look. Another. R0=12.

"A computation of R_e(t) is provided using mean parameters. The point estimate of the basic reproduction number is approximately 12."

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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