Thread by @syrpis

Might the Brexit talks be about to enter 'the tunnel'? Is high-level political intervention going to enable a deal to be reached? Some thoughts - focused on the UK side. 1/13

My first thought is that a deal *can* be reached. The UK could have one of many relationships with the EU, depending on the UK's preference. The EU will insist on a balance between rights and responsibilities (and there will be a battle over how that balance is struck). 2/

This could be anything from membership of the EEA, to a comprehensive 'trade +' deal, to a more thin free trade agreement. The more the UK wants easy access to the EU market, the more rules it will have to agree to be bound by. 3/

Those close to the negotiations, who have taken a close interest in the way in which the two sides' positions have evolved, can see ways in which the divides (eg on fish and state aid) can be bridged. 4/

But (and that is a big but), my second thought is reaching a deal depends on political will: to make a deal, and to compromise in order to make such a deal possible. And I am very sceptical about whether the will is there. 5/

As many have written, a thin deal (the maximum the UK Govt appears to want) will be disruptive. There will be 'friction', including in relation to trade between GB and NI. A lot of things which were easy (as a result of EU level rules), will become more difficult. 6/

Why compromise, why 'sell out' (by compromising with the EU), why antagonise much of your Parliamentary party, just in order to get a deal which manifestly fails to deliver on what you have been promising? 7/

One reason is that the alternative (no deal) is worse - it will create even more disruption.

But, the Govt has said that it is ready for no deal and that the UK will only thrive when it is free from the EU's regulatory orbit. 8/

Another reason is that the alternative (no deal) is unsustainable.

The Govt's response to this is either to dismiss it, or to claim that it will somehow be in a stronger position post no deal. 9/

It may be, and it is this which those hoping for a deal seem to rely on, that there is a rather large gap between the Govt's rhetoric, and the negotiating reality. It may be that, at this late stage, pragmatism will win out, and compromise will be embraced. 10/

I'm sceptical about that. Isn't it just as plausible to think that the Govt believes its own hype; and that it values an assertion of sovereignty over a (real, but relatively small) benefit in terms of trade and relations with the EU? 11/

The Internal Market Bill is the most recent illustration. It shows how far the UK is prepared to go - not to compromise with the EU in an attempt to get a deal, but to combine sovereignty and unfettered trade in an entirely unrealistic way. 12/ See:

ukandeu.ac.uk/internal-marke…

All in all, it doesn't feel to me that we are close to a deal (which is, to reiterate, not to say that a compromise deal cannot be found).

The Govt's rhetoric does not point towards a deal. And, it has little political space for compromise. 13/13