Thread by @cfishman

Here's some science on covid-19, as we understand it now.

People tend to be most contagious in the 2 days before they show symptoms.

For Trump aide Hope Hicks, that appears to be Monday and Tuesday of this week.

For Trump, that appears to be Tuesday and Wednesday.

2/ Both Hicks & Trump met with a dozen or more people over those days, while very contagious. With no masks, per the preference of Trump.

That put — among others — Joe Biden & Chris Wallace at risk during the debate (indoors, 90+ minutes, no masks).

3/ Meanwhile, as you hear of VP Pence and his wife, of Pompeo, for instance, testing negative, one important caveat:

This is a moment not for the antigen quick-tests but for PCR testing.

Why?

The quick-tests are very reliable if you are positive. You are likely infected.

4/ But the quick-tests have a gap — if you test negative, there is a significant chance (10%+) of a 'false negative.'

That means you are told you don't have the virus, but you might. The quick tests can even show 'negative' for several tests in a row, even if you have the virus.

5/ The President announced to the world that he is infected with the deadly coronavirus via a tweet.

It's a moment for a White House medical briefing — calm, with physicians and officials, not battling reporters, but answering questions.

Should be this morning.

6/ Simple question 1: Is the President experiencing illness, symptoms? Is the First Lady experiencing symptoms?

Note: The White House did not announce Hope Hicks being covid-positive. That came from @JenniferJJacobs of Bloomberg.

The White House won't say if Trump has symptoms.

7/ Given the number of senior people Trump & Hicks — alone — come in contact with each day, this has the potential to be a 'super-spreader' event across the top level of the federal government.

@JenniferJJacobs story this morning on Trump seeming ill Wed.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…