This video, from old work of ours, shows how a respiratory virus spreads across social ties, inexorably, and it illustrates the sort of time course we can expect to occur in a social group like the (mask-less) staff around POTUS. We will hear soon of more cases. 1/
One of the reasons politicians and celebrities contract diseases early in an epidemic, as discussed in #APOLLOSARROW, is precisely that they are often central in social networks, and have many interactions. It's not just that we hear about such people because of their fame. 2/
During past pandemics, including the 1890 and 1918 pandemics, many world leaders contracted infections, as discussed in #APOLLOSARROW (amazon.com/Apollos-Arrow-…). We are seeing this again in 2020, with Johnson, Bolsonaro, and Trump. 3/
It would be interesting to see whether leaders who dismiss the risks of the COVID19 (like Trump, Johnson, and Bolsonaro) are more likely to contract it than leaders who do not (like Macron, Merkel, Arden, etc.) 4/
I have no doubt that, before long, network diagrams will be drawn of Trump's entourage, showing positivity for COVID19, and exploring the network spread. I suspect network properties will be shown to play a role. Probably @ValdisKrebs will do it. ;-) 5/
Biden is negative for COVID so far. 6/
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