Thread by @redphonecrypto

How should I value thee ?? @apyfinance

You maketh yield farming so hard with your vesting

But I shall give it my bestest shot...

Let us start with the numbers

👇

MONTH 1
- 0 tokies to the team (they have a 1-year cliff on their 20 million allocation, so they don't get anything until day 366)
- 900,000 tokies to liquidity miners
- 3,000,000 tokies to seed and strategic investors (1-year vest on their 36.5 million tokens)*

*See image

MONTH 1 TOTAL DISTRO
- 3.9 million tokies

DAY 1 DISTRO
- 30,000 tokies to liquidity miners
- 100,000 tokies to seed and strategic investors

So now we know 130,000 tokies per day will hit the market in Month 1. How shouldeth we value those?

Well, let's take a look at the TVL to MC ratio Mr. Market has assigned the leading projects atm

The average market cap on circulating supply is 46% of TVL (as shown above).

Let's assume APY's TVL stays flat at ~$75 million

So, 46% of that = $34.5 million

$34.5 million / 3.9 million tokies = $8.85

That's just month 1, of course. Could be much higher on Day 1. I'd expect the price to grind lower after that as dilution just chews away at like a starving mouse gnawing through the side of a metal trashcan filled with cheese

The only way that melt off doesn't happen is if they radically innovate (like say, the bad MFers at ). Or TVL grows rapidly (I'm sure that's the goal). Or they use some fees to burn tokies. Or they give a nice fat yield bonus to APY stakers. Or some combo of the above.

Bottom line = if my $8.85 estimate is correct (and that's the average price of APY throughout Month 1), I'm earning about a 66% annual yield on my capital right now

Not orgasmic but not bad

Happy to see holes poked here (especially re: the vesting sched)

Peace and love, CT