Thread by @BillHanage

Some comments on the last few days. I will start by saying I wish the President and First Lady a speedy recovery. This is about what the events as currently understood illustrate about transmission risks and handling the pandemic 🧵1/n

As I write more and more apparently connected infections are being reported. It is hard to interpret them without more information about contacts, but many appear linked to an event in the Rose Garden last weekend washingtonpost.com/politics/trump… 2/n

It should be noted that risks of transmission outdoors are usually considered low. So it would be valuable to know whether and which guests were indoors together, both in term of understanding risk of infection and tracking new chains of infection along contact networks 3/n

DC is notorious for its contact networks. And some tend to include powerful and relatively old people. Older people are at higher risk, even if that risk divides further on whether you are old and poor, or old and rich 4/n

The virus moves readily from rich to poor. Somewhat less readily back, but it can make it.

5/n

We know a large number can become infected in a single event. We should take steps to avoid a surge of infections over a short period in general, but that is even more important if people with important roles in the government could be infected in rapid succession 6/n

This is not based on exaggerated concern about risk of infection – most will recover – it is about ensuring infection is controlled. Which sensible people have always prioritized. “Uncontrolled transmission is bad” is something almost everyone agrees about 7/n

I would urge the @JoeBiden campaign to be cautious. The virus spreads rapidly and readily, and exposure at the debate Tuesday is a risk. It is reasonable to believe multiple members of the presidential entourage were potentially infectious 8/n

The test results today are good but not conclusive. We will need to wait awhile to be sure as could be early in the course of infection. And during that time the candidate should distance and avoid close contact indoors. Continue wearing masks. Only keep essential engagements 9/n

However there was little distancing to be seen at the Rose Garden. Nor has there been similar events at the WH. Infections around the periphery have been reported for months, to the extent I am not surprised this has happened 10/n

Give the virus a way in, it will take it. Even if the nature of transmission is that most introductions to a community go extinct of their own accord that's only comforting so far. You allow enough introductions you know what will happen?

One of them won't go extinct

11/end