A couple of interesting points here.
What does it mean "long-term"? How long is that and what will be happening to the UK economy before these long-term benefits are achieved?
/1
There is also an interesting point around the benefits of being a free trade hub (a country that has a high number of trade deals). It's different from being a hub for trade or manufacturing and doesn't always translate.
/2
Let's say we sign all these deals, and let's put aside their relative impact on the UK economy vs impact of leaving the EU debate for a moment - we will never be a global manufacturing hub given the cost of UK labour and where we sit in the global value chains.
/3
This focus on becoming a hub and focus on exports is a strategy that several Asian countries went for decades ago. It's what we would advise a developing country - increase your exports.
/4
It's not exactly the same for a developed economy given exactly its position in the value chain.
I'm assuming the "we're a trading nation" comment covered services and the plan is to export them too, by the way.
/5
It's great that we got a roll-over deal with Japan. That was a significant achievement - though it was made possible thanks to 1) Japan changing its mind on the roll-over 2) Japan wanting to get additional provisions in.
/6
It will be fantastic to get further deals but let's not overestimate their impact.
One of the lines is that UK SMEs will have the opportunity to export to so many new markets - are we sure they will survive until these agreements come into force?
/7
Even when I'm advising a developing country it's never just about exports - it's exports plus solving domestic issues.
Once again what good is a deal that no one uses? A deal that SMEs don't have the capacity to take advantage of?
/8
With the impact of lack of prep for 1 Jan and covid combined expansion to foreign markets is the last thing SMEs are currently occupied with.
/9
It might be of interest in a couple of years, yes. For the ones that manage to survive and get their head around the paperwork- yes, this will be an opportunity. And we're back to the initial question of when are these "long-term" benefits going to be achieved?
/10
There is this sense of frustration with the biz within Gov - why can't they just see the opportunities. There is also an unwillingness to understand how business works and how the last 4 years have impacted UK companies.
/11
Few ppl in the Gov have proper private sector experience - yes there is an element of seizing opportunities, going for it etc. But there are also financial and capacity constraints. 4 years of Brexit and covid are not business as usual.
/12
The chances of these companies being in a position to take advantage of the UK becoming a hub of FTAs (even if that happens) while recovering from the loss of margins with the EU are slim in the near future.
/ends
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.