Thread on when I specifically cite all the flawed methodology in this year's polls, there's a separate angle highlighted by this story. See, it's not just the historical context they're failing to filter their weighting through as I've cited. There's also new information missed.
This story highlights a JP Morgan analysis that dug into all the voter registration numbers across the country. And with limited exception, they are quite favorable towards Republicans.
zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorg…
Even if you're polling off a 2016 voter file when Trump also won, you're going to miss this. So are you even bothering to account for it? And if you're not, how are you specifically accounting for it?
For example, since 2008 the GOP has wiped out about 70% of the Democrats' voter registration edge in Florida. So how can you possibly forecast dominant Biden wins there as we've seen of late? Quinnipiac's final FL poll in 2018 had DeSantis losing by 7! He's governor now.
In 2016 I worked for the Cruz campaign. During the Iowa Caucuses, some of the public pollsters were correctly identifying we were going to set massive turnout records here. However, their assumption of what that meant was off everywhere.
A group called @theFAMiLYLEADER was undergoing a massive new voter registration largely missed by the media. Just as these voter registration numbers across the country are largely being ignored by big media polls in 2020.
TFL was specifically targeting Bible-believing Christians that had never voted in a caucus before. And while they weren't specifically advocating for a candidate, the turnout message was heavily driven by ideology and adherence to principles.
Do the math from there, on caucus night we did set a turnout record. 45% had never attended a caucus before, and Cruz (the ideological candidate) actually won that group to win Iowa. He out-performed the final RCP polling average by a whopping 8 points!
This is why I think the Biden campaign was sounding the alarm in a private memo this week. Because campaigns always have better data than the public. The reason I alone correctly predicted Cruz to win Iowa, is because I was the only media figure with Cruz's campaign data.
I'm not a shaman or prophet, I just had better data. And data always wins. The same has gone with Covid. I've not been proven right this year because I'm an epidemiologist or immunologist. But because I actually went to the data those people provide, when unfiltered by politics.
Biden may well win. I wouldn't bet on Trump straight up, for example. But I certainly would with +160 or higher odds available now. Yet that's a separate question.
I'm merely discussing the polling modeling we're seeing. And, as I've pointed out repeatedly, its deeply flawed.
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