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I do quantitative things. Sometimes I think about society and economics.

Nov 17, 2020, 5 tweets

Work by Shi and colleagues on humanizing bat CoVs dates back to at least 2007.

From:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bi…

Paper:

jvi.asm.org/content/82/4/1…

This early research only used chimeric Spike constructs in pseudovirions.

Baric did full CoVs the next year.

Comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 binding to ACE2 across hundreds of mammalian species reveals the strongest affinity is for *human and primate* ACE2.

Moreover, there is little to no selection pressure toward hACE2 by the virus. It *already worked*.

This is exactly as expected if the viral RBD was chosen from a set of sampled strains based on its affinity for human ACE2.

It is *not* expected for natural origin. That should produce selection toward hACE2 from bat ACE2. Instead, we actually see selection *toward bat ACE2*.

In other words: this random weirdly-shaped Spike RBD was *barely clinging* to its ability to bind bat ACE2 and circulate among bats. It was under selection pressure to bind bat ACE2 better.

Meanwhile it *randomly happened* to have very high affinity for human ACE2 *already*.

The probability of this being coincidence is minuscule. Hardly any humans living nearby have antibodies to SARS-like CoVs. This RBD was not from a human virus.

It came from a low-fitness bat virus that just so happened to be a great candidate for human emergence studies.

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