Sam Trabucco Profile picture
Former CEO + crypto quant trader @ https://t.co/HgMj6usiBe. Sports were too hard so I did math instead. Not investment advice.

Dec 24, 2020, 19 tweets

'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there

Our traders were summoned post-haste from their beds
While visions of making bank danced in their heads
SBF in his sweatshirt, and I in my tee
Had just downed something we're gonna label "coffee"

And amongst all the chaos, amongst disarray
Amongst the red numbers borne out of the fray
From all of the carnage arose one big loser
A coin with a regulatory accuser

For days, XRP has been in the gutter
Because of the claims from Jay Clayton the FUDder
U.S. folks had to spew their positions before
The exchanges could manage to shutter the door

Exchanges like Coinbase -- they threw up their hands
What to do when your government comes with the bans?
To delist or restrict? Or just pause for a while?
It was clear they'd react -- that's Coinbase's style

Trading got pretty crazy because no one knew
Would withdrawals make it past the the phase "under review"?
The markets on Coinbase got quite out of line
Sometimes rich, sometimes cheap -- a trader's goldmine

And elsewhere! Premia were just as sky-high
Japanese XRP was percents good to buy
Derivatives markets moved sort of at random
Arbs arise when the products do not move in tandem!

Insane though it was, there was also a trend
Each XRP market tended to descend
To prices lower than we've seen in some time
Since before Thanksgiving and crypto's big climb

Crypto has high leverage! Which many traders love
It gives them positions many times above
Their net worths with which they could easily gain
The crypto exposure they seek to attain

This magnifies winnings, of that there's no doubt
That carries a cost, and that cost gets borne out
When markets decide to move the other way
It magnifies losses traders need to pay

When a coin's cut in half in the course of a week
The outlook for longs can get pretty bleak
At this point I believe that I've set expectations:
XRP got destroyed amongst liquidations

EVERYWHERE traders got too aggressively long
On BitMEX, on Binance, on Huobi -- all wrong
Positions insta-sold into thin walls of bids
Since traders are off spending time with their kids

Orders always dry up when the market's away
And that is especially true Christmas Day
Impact from aggression gets much more intense
Causing MORE liquidations -- and then even more hence

But all hope was not lost, crypto stayed above zero
The selling fest ended -- no need for a hero
Every coin gained back ground it had recently lost
The buyers were back and bid/ask spreads were crossed

On Bitcoin! On SUSHI! SRM, FTT!
On Chainlink and Ether! And on XRP!
To the top of the graph! Where you were 'fore the fall!
To the moon! To the moon, to the moon, one and all!

I beg you, dear reader -- recall what we've learned
What happens when the downturns for coins are not earned?
When the selling is not the holder's inclination
But instead the result of a liquidation

The market swoops in -- no one wanted to sell
Anywhere near the min price to which the coin fell
So we KNEW this rebound was likely on its way
A repeat benefactor -- Santa Claus on his sleigh

Now we all understand the critical reason
The crypto markets fell this holiday SZN
Some selling was real but the future seems bright
HAPPY BULL RUN TO ALL, AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT

Ugh fucked up the meter here, it should be "downturns" instead of "the downturns"

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