Quick Thoughts from Grab’s $GRAB Investor Presentation
1️⃣ Optionality. Expanding beyond ride-sharing from taxis to car, to bike, to food deliveries, to payments, ads, groceries, insurance, invest, and digital banking.
2️⃣ Its all about being the Everyday Everything App. The platform.
3️⃣ No. 1 Superapp in Southeast Asia.
4️⃣ $12.5bn GMV. $1.6b Adj Net Revenue. No. 1 in Southeast Asia (SEA) for Delivery, Mobility and Financial Services by GMV
5️⃣ Room for growth, overall SEA penetration still fairly low, across food delivery, mobility and financial services.
6️⃣ Financial Services is the one with the highest growth (expected +102% CAGR) excluding Deliveries (boosted by COVID-19) and highest profit margins. Get everyone to use the superapp, then upsell via higher margin Financial Services to get you to profitability.
7️⃣ No. 1 in SEA across 8 countries, with no single country >35% of adjusted net revenue.
8️⃣ Grab’s $GRAB Flywheel and Network Effects.
9️⃣ Grab’s $GRAB Cohort GMV Growth looks promising. Users are spending more year after year. Though 2019’s 1.45X is lower than 2018’s 1.62X (some COVID impact there).
🔟 GMV Analysis FY20 vs FY19: Deliveries offset the decline in Mobility, whilst Financial Services was small up (after I/C adjustments) with overall GMV small up +2.4%YoY.
11) Improving blended take-rates (FY20 vs FY19).
- Deliveries Net Rev 4X with take-rates more than 2X to 14.5%
- Mobility Net Rev flat, but take-rates improved 510bps to 15.6%
- Financial Services small down -40bps to 5.2% (but likely to have levers to improve)
12) Improving EBITDA margins across 3 segments is a good sign. Good to see mobility turning EBITDA positive.
13) % Adj Net Revenue to hover around ~13-14% for FY21-23E similar to FY20.
14) Mobility Adj Net Rev % to max at 20% and end up at 12% Segment EBITDA as % of GMV
15) If Grab can grow and scale post COVID, likely continued path to profitability due to economies of scale, network effects, operating leverage is likely. At FY23 EBITDA of $0.5bn, current EV of $40b, its 80X EV/EBITDA.
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