Oh my gosh people this dashboard is just...🤯 A map of the universe the size of the universe. Possibly I may never do anything else ever again?
Like, how did the partisan breakdown of college-educated white voters evolve in Lycoming County over the past 3 elections? Yeah, sure, I have that for you no problem 😳😳 !!!! targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?…
Yes, the number of Hispanic voters in Berks county did fall, not just in relative but in absolute terms, from 2016 to 2020 targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?…
Or, look at @DebCiamacca's district, where portion of both college-educated whites & registered Dems among final voters was steadily up since 2016, yet the portion of modeled Dem voters *fell*: Huh. But also, yeah...
How bad was Democrats' pandemic-election voter registration deficit? In PA, among modeled GOP voters, the # of first-time voters in 2020 was 8,000 voters lower than in 2016. Among Dems, it was *200,000* voters lower
Related: according to @TargetSmart data for Pennsylvania the absolute number of modeled Dem voters under 30 *fell* by 56,000 voters—over 10%—fr 2016 to 2020. While the absolute # of modeled Republican voters under 30 *rose* by 37,000—over 10%—in 2020 vs 2016 🚨🚨
Nor is this just an urban story: Even if you assume the decline of 39,000 in voters under 30 in urban PA is a big chunk of Dems' 2020 youth deficit, you've got ~17,000 left to explain. Looks like lots of young suburban registration-or-persuasion targets out there right now 👀.
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