Thread by @lukecooper100

I've written a new report on the Brexit deal for @Another_Europe, picked up in today's Observer with a nice plug from the awesome @NadiaWhittomeMP.

Here's a 🧵 with some of the deets /1
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

The movement of regulatory powers to the UK is mostly pointless because outside of agriculture (where change has been signalled) and immigration (where change is substantial) in most areas the UK isn't intending to use its new 'powers'. /2 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…

The UK has won a largely nominal ability to deregulate as the level playing field protections mean that the tariff implications of deregulating in these defined areas make it pretty unlikely to ever happen /3 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…

The deal is scheduled for review/renegotiation in 2025 so this will feature in the 2024 general election. We outline some priority areas for a new reformed deal /4

Public opinion is more flexible than people - and politicians - tend to realise. Sure, the headline polling does align closely with the typical Remain/Leave divide. But with only 19% of people supporting the current deal.

/5

71% of people expect the deal to change in coming years incl 44% of people who see 'many important issues to finalise' which means 'lots more negotiation'. These people are clearly correct as Brexit never 'ends' as such and involves permanent negotiations with the EU /6

The other interesting thing about Brexit is how the justification is inevitably shifting. It's gone from the great promise of change and transformation to 'nothing in my life has changed so what are you complaining about' /7

Given how much partisan commitment was invested in Brexit as an idea it is pretty stunning that only 9% of people are prepared to say they know someone positively affected by Brexit. I couldn't possibly comment on how honest those 9% of people are being... /8

Pleased to see it launched. Full report here:

anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…

/ENDS