The Big Lie is still in place because the trusted communication infrastructure that supported & cemented the Big Lie is still in place. If your plans/advice to Dems re future elections aren't grappling w/this ongoing reality, *you're* the one living in a fantasy version of the US
Like this👇 should not be an evergreen tweet. yet here we are
As a Cardcarrying Historian™ I've been thinking a lot about what sources future historians will have to work with in reconstructing this moment: & am struck by how radically different your understanding of just what happened in 2020—& what people thought about—will be, depending
The political debate that was going on in the semi-private public realm of community Fb groups looked nothing like the range of debate visible thru elite media sources. An example is the role of perceptions of "Antifa violence", which I tried to trace here
2020's polling miss was just one repercussion of a *broader* accelerating fracture of communication spaces & willingness to communicate across them. I don't see center-to-left analysts+activists grappling w this: everyone seems too busy insisting results proved their priors right
This @peterdslevin piece from last month is really important in capturing the layered & reinforcing dynamics involved. It's not just about Trump. It's not just about Facebook. It's not just disinfo per se.
& I'm here to tell you, it's not just Iowa. newyorker.com/news/campaign-…
👇How can you trust politicians who aren't talking about the reality you are convinced exists (elsewhere)? But how can Dem politicians span that gap when the RW version of reality—on basic questions like "is COVID serious?" or "did Biden win the election"—has moved beyond truth?
I was fascinated by this @PerryUndem research in which "Trump's lies"/"Pres Trump cares about people like me"+views of BLM are the strongest predictors of vote choice. Does this mean opinions of Trump simply *drove* vote choice tho? Correlation≠causation perryundem.com/wp-content/upl…
If the election was all about Trump then, all good! national nightmare: over. But what if it's that those questions are the ones that index most efficiently which communications universe respondents inhabit? A world in which Trump lies? or one in which he's the American dream?
Note too "Joe Biden's lies" highly cited by Trump voters. & “Kamala Harris is tricking everyone. She only cares about becoming president” was among very strongest vote predictors. We're all convinced we're being lied to bc we're personally factchecking against different realities
This week I dived back into the rabbit hole of links shared in community Fb groups before & after the election, up thru Jan 6 when Fb cracked down & everything changed. I ran back into this: which has been viewed 1.6 million times (+another 900K on YouTb?) facebook.com/10004452648566…
It really exemplifies how many actors leaned in to the distrust-disinfo[-profit] cycle—I mean here's someone w 2.9 million Fb followers + 1.9 million on YT who AFAIK hasn't even made the "journalists routinely namecheck as conspiracist" big time (but see👇 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JP_Sears
[not irrelevant👇]
Picking this thread up again & starting w/👇bc...
...my TL is again seesawing btwn Round No. I'veLostCount of the Dem messaging wars OTOH & handwringing about demography[might-not-actually-be]destiny OTO. & I'm left asking:
When do we get the pundit-cycle that focuses on the many layers of rules/institutions/networks in between?
I'm increasingly pessimistic about all this👇actually: but to me that makes it even more urgent for Dem-side groups to be spending/planning NOW in support of infrastructure that will make the next decade or so of natl GOP election victories less damaging
👇👇
I'm talking about the organizations, networks, rules, interaction spaces & channels that enable people to find ways to do politics together (=internal infrastructure) & to reach out & connect/persuade/engage people~voters more broadly (=external infrstrct)
.@Mlsif+others talked👇about how change can happen in this realm: "It’s like putting old tires in the sea where there used to be coral reefs. Things stick to them & all of a sudden you’ve got the possibility of an ecosystem that works as a coral reef again micahsifry.medium.com/organizing-in-…
& I tried to sum up some trends in Dem-side grassroots infrastructure building here👇 There's been party-building, in some places. & non-party issue-focused local org growth in others. All good! But it's been scotch-taped together. & still limited in reach prospect.org/politics/other…
It's not just money needed. Eg in cities it would help if state/nat'l Dems even just leaned on local powerholders to follow already-existing rules, such that party structures play the role of fair competition space, & people who want power work to expand the electorate to compete
There are other spaces where a little money would go a long way to build internal infrastrucrture. Eg in rural areas, matching funds for schoolboard & other waay downballot canddates. Fellowships for young people to form/join Dem-side local orgs & travel to meet others regionally
But I'm not arguing that local participatory politics can fix everything, or that its strength or weakness explains everything. It can't, & it doesn't!
[👇 not me!]
+: there are feedback loops. By now the predominance of RW communication ecosystems in much of the country makes it increasingly irrational for Dems to make any electoral effort @ all in many rural spaces👇 But making the rational choice makes things worse
This👇exchange fr the day after election sticks w/me: esp bc I know @ErinNinehouser IRL & have seen the dedication she pours into organizing & relational outreach. If even people like Erin start asking Why even try in the face of this? you've got a problem
👇👇👇
picking up this🧵 fr a month ago to hope that this👇fr @mattyglesias is by now a central focus for *someone* in the Dem-side sphere,??
A baseline incentivized-to-be-reality-based local news media was previously baked into the US political balance & is disappearing before our eyes
Not irrelevant: over the past few weeks I've seen a surge of mentions, w/in private groups, of printed issues of Epoch Times arriving unrequested on doorsteps in different Pgh suburbs. Would be great to have a sense of the extent of the push underway... theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
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