Thread by @DrTracyTaylor

@APDillon_ @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JonHardister @JohnBellNC @JohnLockeNC @Chad_Adams 1/ NC SC-2 trends thru 3/30/21 including current data on graphs to reflect current trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard (adds tests which ⬇️ incidence), adds death data back to 6/20.

2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.07% (⬇️ 0.06%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incidence fluctuated b/w 3.19% & 8.88% over last 14 days. Avg daily incidence on 3/30 is 3.9%. Avg daily incidence each month:
May: 6.80% Nov: 737%
June: 7.64% Dec: 10.91%
July: 8.10% Jan: 12.01%
Aug: 6.94% Feb: 7.96%
Sept: 5.69% Mar: 5.40%
Oct: 6.37%

4/ Avg wkly incidence =5.6% (⬆️ 0.03%), has fluctuated despite mask compliance ~90%; over last 3 wks =5.47%. Avg wkly incidence each month:
May: 6.89% Nov: 6.88%
June: 7.40% Dec: 10.59%
July: 8.11% Jan: 12.41%
Aug: 7.38% Feb: 8.58%
Sept: 5.72% Mar: 5.50%
Oct: 6.32%

5/ Rolling 14-day incidence avg =5.54% (⬆️ 0.11%), has fluctuated despite reported mask compliance ~90%. Rolling 14-day avg each month:
May: 6.67% Nov: 6.95%
June: 7.6% Dec: 10.2%
July: 7.95% Jan: 12.38%
Aug: 7.28% Feb: 8.87%
Sept: 5.91% Mar: 5.54%
Oct: 6.15%

6/ # active cases (23,716) ⬆️d (not stat sig). Cases ⬇️ 2/21, consistent w/flu & PNA “seasons.” Hospital caseloads normalized. Avg # new cases/day each month:
May: 583 Nov: 2996
June: 1164 Dec: 5646
July: 1859 Jan: 7032
Aug: 1498 Feb: 3686
Sept: 1352 Mar: 1724
Oct: 2065

7/ # of March tests = 1,098,446. NCDHHS backfills test data, & today (5/4) tests can be back filled from 4/3.
May: 271,133 Nov: 1,242,860
June: 348,174 Dec: 1,673,424
July: 714,289 Jan: 1,896,598
Aug: 699,911 Feb: 1,330,879
Sept: 773,697 Mar: 1,098,446
Oct: 1,037,783

8/ % recovered =96.0%, active cases =2.6%, deaths =1.36%. MR ⬆️ to 0.118%. Avg # deaths/day =9.86 (⬇️ 2.85). Avg # deaths/day:
3/20: 0.80 10/20: 29.2
4/20: 14.4 11/20: 36.9
5/20: 18 12/20: 66
6/20: 15.3 1/21: 94
7/20: 21.3 2/21: 41.5
8/20: 28.1 3/21: 12.2
9/20: 27.0

9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 18
deaths out of 230,256 total cases (CFR = 0.00755%) since 6/15. Conversely, while 14% of NC COVID cases (132,406) are in 65-75+ cohort, 82% of all NC COVID deaths (10,412) are in this cohort; of these 43.6% have been in congregate settings.

10/ Hospitalizations reporting changed on 11/13, & ⬇️ by 19 pts to 963. NOTE: on 5/4/21, vent, ICU, & inpatient available capacity well within normal limits & have been for ~7 wks.

% change in active cases & tests ⬆️ slightly this wk (not stat sig); incidence did not change.

11/ WCPSS reported 84 cases 4/8-14 (71 stdts/13 staff). Private/charter schools report 38 cases (35 students/3 staff).

Covid cases per cohort ⬆️‘d across some age groups (not stat sig) this wk. Main cohort drivers of Covid transmission are 25-49 yrs, 50-64 yrs, & 18-24 yrs.

12/12 There were 1981 active cases in 50-64 cohort & 4858 in 25-49 cohort (total 6839). There are 3722 active cases COMBINED in 2-24 cohort. (ALL of NC). Overall, avg daily/rolling 14-day incid, active cases, hosp, daily cases, deaths/day steady. Hospital capacity not an issue.