We've serious doubts about Spanish death data, with hints pointing to 10x exaggeration from last summer.
Health Ministry produces daily reports, with ~10 or less deaths notified ONLY to be corrected 10x during following weeks.
Media systematically air over 100.
Thread.
Epidemics have TWO phases:
Epidemic phase, in which cases grow and decrease QUICKLY.
Basal phase, in which cases are stable AND LOW.
There's NO such thing as a high plateau. It makes NO epidemic sense.
It growths, it decreases or it's low and stable.
If we check Euromomo we notice the VERY HIGH (over 150 daily deaths plateau) produces NO EXCESS DEATHS.
It must produce more than a 10% excess, as expected all causes is 1.200 and we're out of winter high peak including seasonal epidemics, that could cover CV deaths.
During 1st wave, despite the chaos and lack of procedures, daily notified deaths only diverged for final corrected data in ~10%
Now the mistake, even with figures MUCH lower and procedures developed, it goes easily over 1.500%
Let's compare daily notified before/after correction
We think this data, deaths notified every day, and NOT the corrected series appearing WEEKS after is the true Covid related deaths.
People sick enough to be in Covid radar at the time of DYING.
The rest are just PCR+ found in any other cause deaths after patient file revised.
We graph this series, and we find relevant things.
While official maximum was ~600, daily notified reached only ~90, more compatible with weaker Epidemic struggling against 1 year of widespread infection.
Susceptible pool is VERY different, MUCH SMALLER, than in 1st wave.
Another very important issue is it follows a known Epidemic shape, fitting so properly in Gompertz.
How could a curve made only of Human notification MISTAKE fit SO WELL in the EXPECTED natural shape?
BECAUSE IT IS THE TRUE DEATHS. SERIES.
@MLevitt_NP2013 gonna love this.
So, only rational explain is just a few people (<10) are dying from respiratory deseases, linked to Covid or true Covid. The expected ratio we observed every year, including the so covidly '20
The other notified ~150 are only found after checking all cause deaths for old PCR+
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