Thread by @alexnunns

Keir Starmer has made himself a hostage of the Labour right, and at a time of their choosing (not yet) they'll cast him aside. He dynamited all his bridges with the left, cutting himself off from any sources of counter-pressure, so no one's coming to save him. >

I think the political dynamics of bad election results are: the worse Starmer does, the more dependent he is on the right, which can make his survival conditional on him kicking the left more.

So they're already talking about a shadow cabinet reshuffle. It's almost sad for the soft left because they cheered on as Starmer cleared out those to the left of them, only to find that they're now next in line.

LOTO is also briefing against chief whip Nick Brown, who was served under Corbyn and apparently wasn't exactly enthusiastic about withdrawing the whip from him.

I expect LOTO will also brief against Angela Rayner and staff who had oversight of the election campaign. The ground was laid a while ago in the Guardian. Angela will probably respond with briefings against Starmer's political secretary Jenny Chapman. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

Within the party, Starmer's General Secretary is already waging a full scale factional war on the left. The Labour right will push Starmer to accelerate it. Withdrawing the whip from Jeremy Corbyn wasn't enough. They want the left obliterated.

None of that will solve Starmer's electoral problems, of course. But that's not the Labour right's concern. Starmer's future isn't in his own hands now. He probably wouldn't know what to do with it if it was.

If it doesn't sound like this dynamic is going to end well, the familiar mixture of hubris and cluelessness is what has previously given rise to opportunity for the left.