Thread by @gnomeicide

I said yesterday that over the next few days we would see over 3000 infections in a day soon. Today, it was 3180, and 9 deaths. This takes a little unpacking. Here's the overall picture now (1)

Have a look at the recent trends for both infections and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising, deaths are basically static and perhaps rising again, but its hard to be certain (2)

The overall trend for deaths is worrying. For 3 of the last 4 days we saw more deaths reported than the same day the previous week (3)

We can't yet pick this out over the statistical noise -we can say that deaths aren't falling, we can't yet say for sure whether this is translating into a rise (other than over the last few days) (4)

On average deaths are rising at 1.7% per day over the last 7 days, but while numbers are still low thats a very noisy figure, don't read too much in to it yet. Its concerning. Its not terrifying yet, (5)

Cases are rising, tomorrow projections are for 3085 to 3393. (6)

Cases are rising at about 2.4% per day, on average over the last 7 days (7)

This is nothing like the case number we were getting in December and January, but its a real rise and its concerning (8)

Its still turbulent, we would struggle to put a line on doubling times for cases as calculated daily, the trend is bad, on the whole its getting faster. (9)

Sow here are we with regards to infection rate (R)? Well, not in a good place. This is calcualted from a rolling 7 day average for both deaths and cases, based on how long it takes for symptoms to show and to kill (10)

On that basis R as calculted from deaths was higher on the 3rd of this month than at any point since the 20th of December - if thats daily scatter from low numbers it'll fall again. If it isn't, it won't (11)

And for infection its still above 1.1. Thats definitely real. (12)

So are we at crisis point again? Look, this is crude analysis here, I can't say with certainty - but I'd be nervous about any more unlocking as things stand right now. (fin)