Thread by @gnomeicide

Things are suddenly going wrong. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now - cases and deaths are rising (1)

Have a look at the recent trends on log plots. Its early days to be certain deaths are going up - 3 days in a row is concerning but not conclusive. Cases are rising faster though, today was over-trend (2)

In fact, deaths have risen for 4 of the last 7. (3)

We're up to 8.41 per day from a low of 5.71. From yesterday to today translates to a deaths doubling time of just under 13 days (4)

Deaths are rising at 2.4% per day, on average over 7 days. If this turns into a new trend its a serious problem (5)

Positive tests ,on the other hand, are obviously now rising ever faster. 2.7% per day on average. Obviously any rise in deaths lags behind a rise in recorded cases (6)

The data is a little turbulent as yet, but cases at present are doubling every 20 days, more or less. And thats getting faster (7)

R as back calculated from deaths (to the 4th of this months, the average day those who died today caught it) was at the highest point since December 20th. But with the number of deaths being low thats a less reliable measure. (8)

For infections we're seeing R settling out to a little over 1.1 (9)

Cases are rising. Death are rising. At this stage recovering from the first wave we were trundling along at the bottom, approaching but still a way shy of the start of wave 2 (10)

With vaccinations as they are now, we ought to be doing far better - but the Indian variant is more infectious. (11)

Why aren't vaccinations stopping it yet? Because (a) mass infection was allowed here, creating the Kent variant, and (b) we opened up our borders to the even worse Indian strain. Thats explained here (12)

How bad will this rise get? We don't know. We haven't really got enough data on how the vaccines interact with the Indian strain. But we shouldn't be in this position. We would, with the original strain, be at a herd immunity from vaccination by now. (13)

We didn't defeat this because we opened up from lockdown 1 too fast, saw mass infection, created the Kent strain and then allowed the Indian one in. We had this disease on the ropes and we let it back at us. EVERY death now is needless. (14)

We have made the same mistakes repeatedly. Whats the chances we won't this time? Be angry. Stay angry. Never forget - this is Johnsons catastrophe. (fin)