Thread by @gnomeicide

Both deaths and cases up on last Saturday. The Covid-19 picture in the UK is looking pretty crap right now. I'll try and explain whats happening. Here's the overall picture (1)

Even on the overall picture you can see that cases are rising. But here's a look at the recent trends on log plots, its very clear death and cases are now rising (2)

Cases started rising in early May. Around the 4th... (3)

Deaths started rising later. It takes an average of 23 days for Covid to kill. It takes 5 days for symptoms to show. Between 18 and 23 days after a reported rise in cases, deaths rise. Every time. This is the same (4)

21 days after cases were recorded to be rising, deaths are recorded to be rising. (5)

Deathhs are rising at 5.6% per day, 7 day rolling average, thats the highest since the 14th of January (as deaths were slowing in the final approach to the second peak) (6)

We can work out a proxy for R looking at deaths, but at a delay. We're up to the 6th of this month for that from current deaths data. It was rising rapidly, above 1.4. Thats the highest since the 24th of September last year (7)

Deaths have risen, over the previous week, for 5 successive days. That hasn't happened since January. (8)

Cases are rising at over 3% per day now. (9)

Comparing R as calculated from deaths and cases, you can see that for the most part during the pandemic they track (10)

...but with fewer people dying right now the fluctuations in this figure for deaths is more variable. The trend is unmistakably upwards, and however you measure it R is above 1 and rising (11)

I don't know how else to put it - but it looks to me like things are going slowly pearshaped. How bad they'll get, I don't know. But what kind of fool would be urging us on to open up more, and faster, with this going on? (12)

Its time to hit the brakes on reopening. It may be time to reign things back a bit too. (fin)