Thread by @gnomeicide

Ghastly Covid data in the UK today. Just ghastly. 18270 infections, 23 deaths. Here's the overall picture before getting into the details. (1)

Deaths over trend, not massively so but any trend of increasing deaths is awful. Cases over trend again - they're increasing ever faster. Look at the two on log plots (2)

If you just look at he 7 day rolling totals its pretty clear how grim this is now. That was 60 two weeks ago, 74 a week ago, 115 now. (3)

Deaths and cases continue to rise exponenentially. Which means things can get extraordinarily bad very fast indeed. (4)

23 is the highest number of deaths on a Saturday since the 24th of April (5)

115 is the highest 7 day total since the 30th of April (6)

The 7 day average rate of change has been above 3% for 5 days in a row. Its 6.7% now. That hasn't happened since the 14th of January (7)

Cases are rising exponentially. Over 18000 today, for the first time since the 6th of February (8)

Half term slowed the rate cases were rising, and once the impact of that was over we're right back on the same rapid rate that the rise is increasing - i.e. the rate infection is rising is getting faster. 6.4% per day now (9)

So the average doubling time over the last 7 days has been 13 days. Thats entirely unsustainable. We cannot continue that way (10)

Cases are rising WAY faster than at the start of the second wave (11)

As are deaths - the claim that the link between deaths and cases has been broken is demonstrably untrue. It is simply that the relationship is not the same any more (12)

This is proved by back-calculating R from either cases or deaths. The two still track, and both still remain way above 1 (13)

Tomorrow we're pretty certain to go over 100,000 infections in a week for the first time since the 12th of February (14)

The average day to die post infection is 23. The average day to show symptoms is day 5. Assuming 3 days to get a test result, 15 days from a positive test seems a reasonable time for calculating the link between infection and death (15)

Obviously thats not a simple comparison throughout the pandemic - our terrible start at testing and patchy coverage makes that impossible. But at present? Its about a quarter of a percent (16)

So about 50 of those reported infected today are going to die. 250 of those reported infected over the last 7 days. And the number is rising -exponentially- (17)

Britains staggering ineptitude, allowing the Delta variant to run amok, is the only reason for this. Our vaccine coverage is sufficient to mean that the original and Alpha strains would be declining day on day (18)

I cannot stress this enough - it was Johnsons dithering, Hancocks ineptness, Patels disregard, Sunaks greed, and the sheer lack of due diligence of out entire cabinet that led to this new crisis (19)

Each and every who dies of Covid in the UK now, that was merely the weapon our government used to deliver their deaths. This is directly and clearly traceable to them. Never forget. Never forgive (fin).