Thread by @ProfColinDavis

Here's how the COVID rate has changed in 10-14 year olds since May. And if you think this is steep, wait until the Govt changes the rules to minimise self-isolation of bubbles. School's throwing a COVID party -- who wants to come? (you have to come) #HerdImmunity @SafeEdForAll_UK

Needless to say, this has real world implications that go beyond charts ...

Here's an update to the graph of rolling rate over time for 10-14 year olds in England. It's gone up again, which isn't exactly unexpected.

When I say it isn't unexpected, that's not just me being morose. We've seen this pattern often enough -- once it gets going, Covid grows exponentially, following a straight line on a log scale. Like this. The dashed line shows where it might go, in the absence of any mitigation.

As @RobAnthony01 points out, masks were no longer required in schools from May 17, and I've noted that in this version of the graph. Need to be careful about inferring causality, of course (transition from α to δ was also happening), but it's interesting, nonetheless.

If you like a little suspense in your graphs, there's always the animated version.