Thread by @gnomeicide

Overall Covid scenario in the UK isn't looking good. Its not all bad, but we're hitting some desperately grim milestones right now. Here's the overall picture. Strap in. This is gong to take some working through (1)

Deaths and cases are rising exponentially, but not on the same exponent. There is no such thing as an exponential rise in either thats not terrible news though (2)

37 deaths today is the highest single day total since St. Georges day, and the 7 day rolling average is over 20 now for the first time since the 29th of April. An exponential rise means things get worse at a proportionally constant speed - 1,2,4,8,16,32... (3)

4 of the last 7 days have seen big rises in deaths, 3 have seen small falls. Hence deaths are 20% higher today (again using a 7 day rolling total) than last Tuesday. (4)

...which means the average rise in deaths is 2.8% per day. This is terrible news. (5)

Currently the rate of increase over 7 and14 days takes us to 296 to 425 deaths over 7 days by the end of the month. Exponentials will bite you in the ass every single time (6)

Recorded infections are also rising exponentially. Crazy fast. It will be very surprising if we don't pop over 30,000 in a day this week. Todays 28773 is the highest since the 24th of January (7)

The rate of rise has slowed just a little, but its still just shy of 6% per day. Thats an unsustainable rate (8)

By unsustainable I mean you run out of people to infect, no simple extrapolation based on that works. You end up with peoples contacts all already being infected at this rate, it is -crazy- for cases to be rising this fast at this time (9)

Cases are rising phenomenally fast. Here's what it looks like compared to the start of the second wave of infection last Summer (10)

Or, if you prefer, here's the decline from deaths in the 1st wave and the second, with the bounce into the 2nd and third. Its ominously similar (11)

There are very few positives to draw. One is that a lower proportion of people who are infected are dying, despite a small uptick. Its about 0.2%. Doesn't sound like a lot, but when you're getting tens of thousands of infections that stacks up fast (12)

I'd also add that we can anticipate that figure will rise - the school holidays means we'll be infecting fewer children, who are less likely t die, and we'll also be testing them less often so we will miss more infectins (13)

We have hospital admissions data running to the 29th of last month and thats started to rise quite shockingly. Which we expect, because of course cases are rising exponentially (13)

408 admissions is the highest since the 18th of March. Its a huge rise from 267 the week before. We know that with rising cases it'll continue to rise, again, probably exponentially (14)

But another rare positive here is that a lower proportion of positive tests are translating into hospitalisations - that may shift back up quite sharply after the end of school term though (15)

But however you calculate it, whether from hospital admissions, cases, or deaths, infection rate (R) remains well above 1. Covid is spreading unchecked now, almost out of control. It would be -delusional- to think further unlocking is a good idea now (16)

The bottom line is that with the delta strain now rampant and reports of the even worse lambda in Britain, the gains we've made from vaccination are not sufficient to prevent cases, incidences of long covid, hospitalisations and deaths rising. (17)

...with vaccine escape already a problem with delta, we're about to see things get very bad. As bad as January? No, probably not. But if thats your only measure of 'bad' then I think you need to reconsider your priorities (18)

Many hundreds more people will die in the coming weeks and probably many more hundreds of thousands are going to be left very sick, many with life changing illnesses. All because we completely failed to control Covid in the UK (19)

Case rates orders of magnitude higher than are tolerated in other nations are brushed aside here in the UK. We must, allegedly, 'learn to live with' this. No. Just. No. (20)

'Learn to live with Covid' has no scientific, intellectual, economic or moral basis. It is complete nonsense, the sign of a ruling class who have thrown the towel in because they are incapable of doing their jobs when the going is hard (21)

It is literally a crime against humanity. Its going to lead to Brits being trapped on our island, NO ONE will want us visiting. And it is as has been shown over and over again going to lead to a higher economic and human cost than has been paid by any other comparable nation (22)

Are there positives? Yes. Does that in any way vindicate the current direction of travel in UK Covid policy? No. Not at all. That direction is rank insanity. (fin)