Thread by @ProfColinDavis

Here's a thread about what's happening to #Bristol's COVID rates (adults and children, and spread to different areas).

The overall rate has grown like this over the past two months. (1/7)

For context, here's what that graph looks like if we go back to August last year. It may or may not feel like it, but we're about to exceed our previous peak (of 508 per 100K). (2/7)

It was possible to predict that we'd exceed that peak some time ago, by looking at the same plot on a log scale. We can also project to where the rate will be on "Freedom Day", if we follow the same trend. It's not good. (3/7)

Bristol's cases in this wave have been concentrated in the U30s, especially in the 20-24 year age group. We've seen some especially rapid growth in the 10-14 years age group (which is still growing fast, and is now up to 794 per 100K). (4/7)

But we're also seeing the rates rise in slightly older age groups now, especially those in their early 30s. (5/7)

It might also be a good idea to remind those in their 60s that the pandemic is not over, and that the vaccine is good, but not perfect. (6/7)

Very high rates are no longer confined to areas with high student density. Rates for the top 30 areas are listed here. The continued rise in St Paul's (now 654 per 100K) is particular cause for concern. Less than 30% of the adult population there have had their 2nd dose. (7/7)