Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

This is to help people who think the 4.9 C path or "business as usual" is still possible. Quotes a tweet from @Peters_Glen from 2019. Situation is the same today in 2021 and even more so.

debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-the-busine…

His twitter thread discussing the 4.9 C path (RCP 8.5) is here


I refer to it as the 4.9 C path just because not many people know what RCP 8.5 means but that's technically more accurate, really a scenario of CO2 emissions with a narrative to motivate it.

The Paris Agreement is working. Carbon Action Tracker had this projection for 2100 in December 2018 just after the report on the difference between 1.5 and 2 C

This is what it's like today

Current policies fallen 0.6 C

Pledges and targets have fallen 0.4 C

And the optimistic targets are now 1 C below the current policies for 2018.

That’s a big fall given that every half degree matters.

We have well below 2 C within our sights now.

This gives an idea of countries targetting net zero. It's likely some over achieve. Meanwhile we can expect some to under achieve. But generally the over and under achievers tend to balance each other out.

Graphic from here: eciu.net/netzerotracker

Click bait headlines often say that since emissions per year aren't falling fast yet, we can never achieve this. But what this hides is that half the global emissions are already falling. This is just a rough idea, the lines sketched in by hand.

This is how it's possible, even with rising emissions per year to make predictions that require emissions to fall. China is the main one has to change direction, and they have come in with a clear statement of intent and policy to reduce emissions to zero by 2060.

China tends to under promise and over achieve. We are yet to see the details of how they are going to achieve this reduction, with major questions about it, but it is well within their capability to do so.

The UK is an example that is pretty much on a straight line to zero emissions by 2050. This goal is certainly achievable with the political will and we have detailed plans on how to achieve it. carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

The huge reductions in price of renewables will make it easier and easier for countries to make ambitious pledges and targets. Those that can't or don't do it yet have the opportunity again in 2025 and 2030.

By 2025 we can expect renewables to be half the cost of the lowest cost fossil fuels in the UK. We may get their faster with new technologies like Perovskite solar panels, a low cost way to make flexible solar panels that can be installed easily anywhere.

debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Perovskite-cou…

This is what Debra Roberts said after IPCC report in 2018. The report showed how much we can do as individuals by our choices. Few journalists reported this at the time. Feel empowered, there is much we can do.
Video:
Article:
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/What-the-IPCC-…

This is a list I did of some of the things you can do:
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/12-Simple-life…

My blog post about how the 4.9 C path (RCP 8.5) is now impossible is here:
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-the-busine…
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