🧵The Netherlands🇳🇱 discovered that opening up all INDOOR night life (clubs and bars), with NO social distancing, NO mask use, and only a rapid-antigen-test that could be administered up-to 40 hours before entrance; was a very good way to create Delta Super Spreader events.
The Netherlands also discovered (again) that when cases grow exponentially, things break.
In this case, the labs could not scale up quick enough to handle the tens of thousands of samples, sent to them for testing.
How does our 'real' curve look? We are not exactly sure.🤷
Last week, we did not see anything in our hospitals.
The exponential growth was so fast, there was no way the hospitalization rate could keep up.
In the last few days, we see a noticeable uptick.
Again: there is NO FULL decoupling, just a time delay.⏲️
The infection rates in the groups 10-19 and 20-29 are UNPRECEDENTED.
And yes: we now see people under 30 being hospitalized.
Last week we saw a slight increase in all age groups.
When we look now... Well... It's not good:
All cohorts are dragged into this mess.
BUT not as much without the vaccines. --> Get your shot!
The Dutch CDC estimates the Rₑ value just days after the easing of the restrictions to have risen to 2.91 (2.82-3.00)
Due to the way the calculate the Rₑ value, their model only gives a value that is two weeks old.
The current Rₑ is unknown.
Test positivity is around 15%
This is an indication of not enough people currently getting tested, meaning the real number of infected people is likely higher.
Last but not least.
About 45% of ALL people is now fully vaccinated.
Meaning: 55% is still vulnerable.
And Delta ❤️ people who did not get their first and second shot.
Where the measures announced by the government on the 9th enough to stop the spread?
We can only wait... ⏰
[End]
[addendum]
Guess which small western European country thought it was wise to:
- Let people travel to the South of Europe;
- Let travelers import the Deltavariant;
- And then got rid of almost all restrictions...
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