Thread by @justin_tyndall

My new paper Pedestrian Deaths and Large Vehicles was published in #Economics of #Transportation. I estimate the role of increasingly large vehicles on #pedestrian deaths in the US over the past 20 years. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecot…

US drivers have hit and killed over 100,000 pedestrians since 2000. The rate of pedestrian deaths has been increasing recently, even as driver/passenger deaths have fallen.

At the same time, the average weight of a vehicle involved in a crash has gone up by about 200 kg. Light trucks (#SUVs/#pickuptrucks/minivans) have also become more common relative to cars, SUVs as a share of vehicles rose by ~60%.

In addition to being heavier, light trucks tend to have higher front ends, limiting the ability of the driver to see pedestrians and making crashes more lethal for pedestrians.

I track the characteristics of vehicle fleets across metros and compare them to changes in pedestrian deaths. Metros with more growth in large vehicles saw a greater rise in pedestrian deaths.

From 2000-2019, I estimate that 8,100 pedestrian deaths would have been avoided if all light trucks were replaced with cars. If vehicle characteristics would have remained at 2000 levels, 300 pedestrian deaths would have been avoided.

In the paper, I use the value of a statistical life and recommend a schedule of taxes to address the external safety risks imposed by large vehicles in the US. The external cost of driving a light truck rather than a car on pedestrian death risk alone is ~$100 per year.

Free Access Journal Version - authors.elsevier.com/a/1dTUq7sz0wg%…
Draft pdf Version - justintyndall.com/research.html