1/7.
Here's a study which attempted to determine percentage of Covid-19 cases which go unreported in USA. They concluded that about 57% go unreported. I.e., for each reported case there've been ≈1.3 mostly-mild unreported cases.
eurekalert.org/news-releases/…
pnas.org/content/118/31…
2/7.
That is consistent with my own back-of-the-envelope estimates.
Notably, it is very inconsistent with, and far more credible than the bizarre misunderestimations on this CDC page:
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
3/7.
629,842 deaths from (29,712,230 reported + 46,400,000 unreported + 629,842) resolved cases = a true Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) just under 1% (0.82%).
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
4/7.
That estimate of the number of unreported cases also means about 80 million Americans have had Covid-19, and presumably retain some antibodies from their infections.
5/7.
> ½ of Americans (≈172 million) have been vaccinated. If we assume ½ of those who've been infected have also been vaccinated, that leaves ≈40 million Americans with antibodies solely by having been infected.
6/7.
Add them to the ≈172 million who've been vaccinated, and we're at ≈212 million Americans with antibodies providing at least partial protection from Covid-19.
That's 64% of the U.S. population. That's short of "herd immunity," but I see light at the end of the tunnel.
Some press on this..
latimes.com/science/story/…
(Disable javascript to read it without a subscription.)
The U. MN / CIDRAP headline writer doesn't understand percentages:
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
Thank you for doing this work, @AdrianRaftery1 and @NicholasJIrons.
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