I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Iceland (93% of the population 16 years of age or older vaccinated) is experiencing its largest wave of Covid-19 yet. At this point, I think it is unreasonable to assume that increased vaccine coverage will result in herd immunity
On the bright side, a much larger proportion of those infected have minimal or no symptoms, and fewer patients with Covid-19 are being admitted.
Detailed vaccine data: covid.is/statistical-in…
Detailed incidence data: covid.is/data
One thing the world might learn from Iceland is that breakthrough infections are NOT rare. We have a robust track&trace system with mandatory quarantine and double testing of quarantined persons. In this setting, most infections are diagnosed in vaccinated persons
Of course a denominator problem exists at this level of vaccination. Unsurprisingly, infections are rarer among vaccinated. @hjalli_is has created an informative figure demonstrating this (green vaccinated, yellow unvaccinated).
If you would like to learn more about how we structured the Covid-19 response in Iceland, we have put out some papers:
1. Describes the development & validation of a prognostic model and how it could be / is used in our telehealth service
2. Describes the telehealth service in more detail with an emphasis on the data we collected on symptoms and symptom progression
3. Almost all cases of SARS-CoV-2 were sequenced at @decodegenetics and this was used along with track&trace data to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. Primarily the work of @kreldjarn, @SolviStats and @pmelsted
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