@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 1/21》I wrote, "the best mid-ocean measurement record from the biggest ocean is a good place to start."
Cliff asked "why?"
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 2/21》For one thing, Honolulu has an unusually high quality measurement record. It has 116½ years of continuous sea-level measurements, without a single missing month. That's by far the best mid-ocean measurement record in the world's largest ocean.
sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 3/21》For another thing, Honolulu's sea-level trend is very typical, and about the same as the global average.
sealevel.info/avgslr.html
Honolulu is also at a very good location for sea-level measurement. Let me explain why.
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 4/21》Honolulu is on Oahu, which is an old, tectonically stable island. It is several million years old, which is about 4× the age of the Big Island. The volcanoes on Oahu are believed to have been inactive for well over a million years.
movingtokona.com/wp-content/upl…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 5/21》Oahu experiences little or no vertical land motion. However, as an irrelevant by interesting aside, it does move horizontally, to the NW, at a rate of about 3″/year!
nps.gov/havo/learn/nat…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 6/21》Honolulu has never been covered by ice, and it is unaffected by Post-Glacial Rebound (PGR), which greatly affects sea-level trends in many other places.
sealevel.info/glossary.html#…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 7/21》Honolulu's long distance from Greenland also immunizes it from potential distorting effects of Greenland's evolving ice sheet on the Earth's gravity field (the “Greenland Gravity Effect”).
sealevel.info/resources.html…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 8/21》Peltier's ICE-6G(VM5a) estimate is that Honolulu is experiencing just 0.10 mm/yr uplift. Ref:
atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/~peltier/datas…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 9/21》SONEL's analysis, from GPS data, indicates that Honolulu is subsiding (rather than rising), but at only 0.39 ±0.18 mm/yr:
sonel.org/spip.php?page=…
Screenshot:
sealevel.info/Honolulu_HNLC_…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 10/21》The CORS plot is flat as a pancake:
geodesy.noaa.gov/cgi-cors/CorsS…)
or: ftp://www.ngs.noaa.gov/cors/Plots/Longterm/hnlc_14.long.png
Also saved here:
sealevel.info/hnlc_14.long.p…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 11/21》Those VLM numbers are small: +0.1 and -0.39 are opposite sign but not far apart. In other words, Peltier's model & SONEL's measurements agree that Oahu experiences little vertical land motion.
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 12/21》Another estimate is from Hammond 2021. Like SONEL he estimates VLM from GPS measurements. He reports Honolulu's VLM = -0.768 ±0.470 (that is, 0.298 to 1.238 mm/yr subsidence). That seems too high. If true it'd make global SLR only 0.78 ±0.47 mm/yr.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 13/21》I really don't trust any of those estimates. Peltier's is from reasonable but unverifiable models. Hammond's & SONEL's are from just a couple of decades of GPS data, not designed for VLM measurement, and not very good at it. (If GRASP or eGRASP ever fly that might help.)
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 14/21》The reason for measuring at a site with little VLM is the “global” (average) sea-level trend is so slow that in other places it's dwarfed by VLM and/or other local factors, like sedimentation & erosion. Greta's hometown of Stockholm is an example:
sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 15/21》Digression: If sea-level rise accelerated, it would help with Stockholm's dredging expense.
dredgingtoday.com/2014/03/07/swe…
Unfortunately for Stockholm, there's been no significant reduction in their rate of sea-level decline.
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 16/21》Oahu is also affected less than most places by ocean "sloshing." It gets only small tides, and its mid-Pacific location is near the pivot point of the east-west Pacific "teeter-totter," so it is little affected by ENSO slosh.
sealevel.info/resources.html…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 17/21》Perhaps that latter point deserves some additional explanation.
During El Niños easterly Pacific equatorial trade winds diminish, so the Pacific ocean sloshes east, raising sea-level in the eastern Pacific, and lowering it in the western Pacific.
sealevel.info/1820000_Kwajal…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 18/21》Digression: ENSO slosh lowers sea-level at the Great Barrier Reef during El Niños. That can increase GBR coral bleaching, which is sometimes wrongly blamed on global warming.
sealevel.info/resources.html…
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 19/21》But Oahu is near the pivot point of the east-west Pacific "teeter-totter," so it is little affected by ENSO slosh.
So El Niño and La Niña don’t alter sea-level at Honolulu very much, unlike many other Pacific measurement sites.
@tracemetalclean @Hji45519156 @Willard1951 @NickMcGinley1 @Jaisans @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @JohnDublin10 @TWTThisIsNow @ammocrypta @FChecker76 @geoguy_usa104 @Stephen90045069 @NonlinearDarren @Climatehope2 @flyonthewall182 @GregTruman4 @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @BrknMan @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @B_Bolshevik100 @RobMeekel @cieloyla @EthonRaptor @BradPKeyes @JSegor @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady @dan613 @Keeper_86 @Jamz129 @CallMeBlaise1 @ostinado @IngersolRobert @CarrudoDon 20/21》The only thing atypical about Honolulu's sea-level measurement record is its high quality. The trend there (about +1½ mm/year = 6 inches/century) is perfectly typical.
(Note the building elevation, not the beach width; the beach has been widened via "renourishment.")
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