@NCAgriculture 2/7 The 2020 State Fair was cancelled on July 28, 2020, when NC was averaging 21 deaths/day from Covid-19. We're now averaging 64 deaths/day from Covid-19. On 7/28/2020 NC averaged 1933 new Covid-19 cases/day. We're now averaging 6419 new cases/day.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/us…
@NCAgriculture 3/7 I understand that we're all very, very tired of this pandemic. Like you, I really, really wish it were over.
But wishful thinking is not a sound basis for policy-making. If the Fair is not cancelled, it will probably kill hundreds of North Carolinians -- maybe thousands.
@NCAgriculture 4/7 If the Fair isn't cancelled there're 2 possible outcomes:
1. FEW people will come & everyone involved will lose their shirts, financially. That's the BEST outcome.
2. Or MANY people will come, causing tens of thousands of additional Covid-19 cases, and hundreds of fatalities.
@NCAgriculture 5/7 To get an idea of the possible carnage, consider an "intermediate" scenario. The State Fair usually gets about a million visitors. If they get half that many, and if 90% of them are exposed to Covid-19, and if 10% of them get ill, and if 0.5% of those die, that's 225 dead.
@NCAgriculture 6/7 Those are all pretty conservative estimates, and I didn't even consider secondary infections.
The true death toll could easily be several times that.
No amount of fried Snickers bars and giant turkey legs is worth such a price.
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