Thread by @RealJoelSmalley

1/. According to official data, more unvaccinated people died of/with COVID in England in the first 5 months of 2021 than vaccinated. However, as is clearly seen in this chart, this is simply because more people were unvaccinated while COVID was circulating.

The rate at which the vaccinated (with at least one dose) replace the unvaccinated is exactly consistent with the vaccination rate.

2/. Almost all excess death during the period can be attributed to COVID. There are, however, 3 relatively small periods of apparent non-COVID excess. These could be due to data inconsistency (see N.B. at end), other respiratory pathogens or some other factor.

3/. Excess mortality is almost perfectly characterised by 4 distinct Gompertz distributions commencing weeks-ending 11-Dec-20, 01-Jan-21, 22-Jan-21 and 26-Feb-21. They are completely unaffected by the rate of full COVID vaccination. Empirically, there are no lives saved.

4/. Conversely, the start of each distribution coincides with the timetable of COVID vaccinations. As usual, correlation does not necessarily mean causation but four coincidences like this in a row are pretty difficult to ignore.

Link to worksheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
N.B. I had to scale all-cause deaths by around 18%. I presume this is because the vaccine-status dataset provided by ONS is incomplete as it is cross-matched to NHS records. The difference was quite consistent so shouldn't be an issue.

For a plausible scientifc explanation, I defer to @GVDBossche -

And to @EduEngineer - roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/variant-roul…
roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/variant-roul…

Adding this excellent essay by @JuliusRuechel -

And another by el gato malo - boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-vaccinat…

So many clever chaps researching and hypothesising independently but all coming to the same conclusion that is contrary to the official narrative.

Empirical data analysis and good scientific exploration will do that.