Thread by @JeremyCliffe

With a week to go until the 🇩🇪 election, the 3rd & final TV debate is about to start. Time is running out for CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet to regain the lead.

More on his woes and the "Merkel factor" in our latest @NewStatesman Germany Elects podcast:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/world…

The snapshot from our @NewStatesman poll tracker: the SPD lead under Olaf Scholz has stabilised at just under 26%, CDU/CSU under Armin Laschet just over 21% and Greens under Annalena Baerbock at just under 16%.

newstatesman.com/politics/2021/…

Here's what that would mean for Bundestag seat-shares: six politically and arithmetically viable coalitions (albeit some more politically viable than others).

newstatesman.com/politics/2021/…

Scholz up first with his usual key messages: respect, minimum wage increase to €12/hour, stable pensions, modernisation.

Laschet similarly leads with his now familiar lines, but oddly says Germany should "remain a climate-neutral industrial country". Remain?

Baerbock hits more social justice topics than in previous intro comments (a bid for centre-left voters torn between her Greens and SPD?), emphasising gender equal pay and Green support for €12/hour minimum wage.

(Passing observation: All 3 have been doing intensive tours of public events all over Germany and all look pretty tired.)

First big topic is social justice & poverty. Laschet as usual walking tightrope between championing Merkel record and offering change. Scholz solid on social-democratic home territory. Baerbock as in previous debates best at personalising topic of strained family finances.

Laschet's attack on policy of €12/hour minimum wage doesn't concern the proposed rate but its alleged politicisation and the potential weakening of union-led collective bargaining. (Try to imagine a Conservative politician in UK making that argument!).

Baerbock talks about poverty in context of women, single parents and children (1 in 5 children in Germany growing up in poverty). "Money [to fix this] doesn't fall from the sky," she says of Green proposals for higher taxes on top earners. Tanks on SPD lawn...

Scholz as ever plays the reassuring middle ground, gently reminding viewers that CDU/CSU would lower taxes on richest while stressing that SPD plans don't mean tax rises for any earning under €200k:

Worth remembering that contrary to the lazy claim that there's no real choice at this 🇩🇪 German election, there *are* some substantive differences in tax/spending and fiscal policies of the leading parties:

Laschet cites the old Gerhard Schröder mantra about the need to fördern (support) and fordern (demand), ie welfare with strings. Accuses Baerbock of losing sight of the latter. Striking to see the Green candidate so punchy on a subject usually more associated with SPD.

Next up: environment. Laschet complains about the rush to close nuclear power stations in Germany while moving only slowly to close coal. He's right. Just wonder whether he knows anyone... influential... who might have something to do with that.

Baerbock reels off the policies: 3% of land space for renewable energies, massive solar panel roll-out, accelerated end to coal power. Turns question back to "the men from the grand coalition", including the dismal CDU/CSU *and* SPD goal of ending coal use only by 2038.

In all 3 TV debates there has been a certain punchy energy to both Baerbock and Laschet, but not Scholz. That remains the case, but they're also the ones who now seem most ragged towards the end of the campaign. Scholz just whirrs onwards as if this were merely another work day.

Scholz-o-mat gonna Scholz-o-mat I guess.

We're at the now-traditional part of the debate where Baerbock and Laschet get into a passive-aggressive scrappy exchange. This time it's about whether the Greens want to burden the mighty German car industry with "bans" or are merely moving (like the industry) with the times.

Now onto Covid-19. Laschet is invited to commit to no more school closures (good question testing his instincts; he has always been on dovish end of pandemic measures). He doesn't do so but reels out his usual lines about alternative measures, eg "lolly tests" for school pupils.

The three hear a call not to forget social care workers. A big subject in a fast-ageing country like Germany where pay and conditions in care sector not good enough to stop staff shortages.

Scholz and Baerbock stress better pay, working hours and conditions for care workers. Laschet as ever has to preface his comments with a defence of outgoing government's record (rising pay in the sector). But also stresses need for economic growth to pay the bills.

Now internal security. I've often discussed Laschet's weaknesses here, but here's a word of praise: he was clear in highlighting the often-overlooked fact that most recent terrorist attacks in Germany have been far-right, not Islamist.

Now we're onto digitalisation (translation: scary digital internet new technology stuff + creeping suspicion that fax technology has had its day.) Nicely illustrated by this lady from the Bavarian Alps who said lacking internet access is the new lacking toilets. Hard to disagree.

To conclude, each candidate is invited to ask the other a question. Baerbock asks Scholz, as finance minister, what he is doing to stop money laundering.

Laschet uses his question to Baerbock to stir up trouble between SPD and Greens, asking whether Scholz should appear before MPs tomorrow to answer questions on money laundering scandal. Bit odd to ask her. She gives decent answer but not really the person to ask.

Scholz uses his question to put Laschet on spot over how landlords and tenants (NB: most Germans rent) should split costs of greening housing. Laschet waffles.

Some of us may have wished a more... worldly exchange from the two prospective chancellors of Europe's biggest economy.

Finally coalition options. Baerbock wants strong Green party (of course). Laschet targets Scholz over latter's refusal to rule out deal with Left party (of course). Scholz says he wants strong SPD and ideally a SPD-Green coalition (of course).

With that, it's over. My take: Laschet's weakest debate of the three, Baerbock the most punchy as previously, Scholz plodding (with the same thematic strengths and weaknesses as ever) but remarkably solid after the exertions of the campaign.

A couple of thoughts on these 3 TV debates of the 🇩🇪 campaign.

1) Baerbock's inclusion, a product more of the Greens' spring surge than current polling, hugely improved the quality and spirit of these debates. Hopefully no return to fusty two-party formats in future elections.

2) Yes, it's understandable that broadcasters focus on the subjects most likely to shape the choices of undecided voters.

But it's still terribly depressing that together (270 minutes in total!) these three 🇩🇪 TV debates made such little reference to the world outside Germany.

Germany is Europe's biggest economy. Nothing big can be done in the EU without it. That fact has global implications.

Yet in these 3 TV debates the wider world was discussed only fleetingly, and (unless I missed it?) there was not one dedicated question on Europe.

On the positive side, they were still a *lot* better than the 2017 debate.

And there were some lively exchanges on topics (environment, economics, security) that if not foreign-policy per se did speak of Germany's interdependence and international obligations. So there's that.

There are things to despair about in 🇩🇪 politics (as in politics in most places). But I do continue to admire this country whose prospective leaders can clash, disagree, sloganeer, elucidate significant differences... and still be decent to each other afterwards.

Now for the final week of the campaign, with the three major candidates fanning out around the country for the last of rush rallies. Merkel will join Laschet in Stralsund (Tuesday) and Aachen (Saturday). Let's see if any of that moves the polls.

You can find all episodes of Germany Elects, my podcast on the 🇩🇪 election, here:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/world…

Our final pre-election episode will appear on Wednesday, including the all-important question of how the German election actually works!

And watch this space for details of our @NewStatesman live coverage of the 🗳️ results from 18:00 (Berlin) / 17:00 (London) / 12:00 (Washington) next Sunday, 26 September.

And here's the snap poll. Another win for Scholz: