Thread by @Loretta_Torrago

It’s déjà vu all over again as @TracyBethHoeg does the same dumpster dive for Ontario’s “Adverse Events Following Immunization” (AEFI) reporting system that she did for VAERS. Naturally, there are problems. 🧵

As a brief reminder, Hoeg used the raw data of VAERS, despite its numerous disclaimers against doing so, allegedly to extract cases of myocarditis case investigators might have missed. It doesn’t go well.
sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of…

Turning her sights on Ontario, Hoeg doubles down on the mistake; this time not even doing the slightest investigation into Ontario’s AEFI reports (and by “slightest investigation” I mean reading the report) but instead using its raw, unadjudicated data to establish case rates.

Hoeg’s Tweet references this from @rubiconcapital.

Here @rubiconcapital shows the data from a Public Health Ontario Surveillance Report from which he derived the rate. Note: It’s since been updated to include up to October 10. publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Table A3 warns: “Note: Includes all reports of myocarditis or pericarditis identified through case level review (n=423) regardless of the reports meeting the Brighton Collaboration case definition for myocarditis or pericarditis.”

Is it too much to ask that either Hoeg or her source actually read the material they are drawing from?

Apparently so, because the report goes on to discuss these 423 raw reports and whether they meet the Brighton Collaboration case definition (given here) for myocarditis or pericarditis.

Only 320 do (110 out of 116 for myocarditis, 105 out of 192 for pericarditis and 105 out of 115 for perimyocarditis, myopericarditis or myocarditis/pericarditis). This brings us to Hoeg’s second problem.

Those 320 cases meet the definition of myocarditis or pericarditis & etc. But meeting the definition does not establish *causation*, a fact the report calls attention to on the very first page: the AEFIs described “do not necessarily have a causal relationship with the vaccine.”

The upshot is the 423 cases are all reported cases. Only 320 of these case are actually cases of either myocarditis or pericarditis & etc. and none of those 320 cases have a determined causal relationship to vaccination.

There is a still a further problem. Hoeg has not abandoned diving right back into the VAERS dumpster. Instead, she promises a revision.

For Hoeg's proposed revision, I have a suggestion: Read. The. Guidance.

I worried my thread had gone on too long. Turns out, it wasn't long enough. Thank you @justthefacts85 for calling out some unfortunate math.

@justthefacts85 With apologies to @jneill who I should have thanked earlier for his input on understanding Table A3 and crude reporting rates.