Thread by @jwdwerner

A thread on the path to World War I. Parallels between UK–Germany conflict then and US–China conflict today—and the obliviousness of elites conducting it—make it urgent to learn this now largely forgotten history. Excerpts from J. Joll, The Origins of the First World War, 2nd ed.

This arms race dynamic should be familiar: imagining that intensifying the threat you pose to your rival will lead to safe subordination of the other (“deterrence”) rather than unleashing an explosive spiral of insecurity and nationalism:

It’s important to keep in mind the larger context that encouraged the arms race dynamic to spin out of control. First, intense anxiety that the other country posed an intolerable threat to future growth:

Second, the feeling on both sides that the other was trying to sabotage their own existence as a great power:

Third, the growth of organic collectivist forms of nationalism:

Fourth, the sense of zero-sum strategic competition cultivated by all of the above:

Finally, the ideological claim on both sides that securing their own hegemony was required to secure the general good of the world:

Not all of these elements are fully developed in the US–China conflict, but things are rapidly moving in that direction. And the stakes are much higher now given the threat to human life itself posed by today’s weapons and climate change.

And in contrast to the 1910s, today there are clear alternatives that would resolve the conflict without entirely overthrowing the global system. I discussed some ideas here: foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…