I'm seeing signs that "thermostatic public opinion" is comforting Dems who want to believe "well, we didn't do anything wrong, this always happens."
But the *size* of the swing really matters. If Biden had remained on his pre-August approval trajectory he'd still be near 49%
Bill Clinton's approval swung quite wildly in years 1-2. Plummeted, rebounded, then dropped again
George H. W. Bush's approval rating was generally quite good in years 1-2 but dropped right before the midterms
George W. Bush's approval declined a bit in the beginning of year 1, then got the enormous 9/11 bump, which declined in year 2 but still left him positioned for the strongest midterm performance of any president since FDR
Reagan actually didn't come into office all that popular but he quickly got the "getting shot" bump. Then his approval declined heading into the 1982 midterms, major recovery in years 3-4
Trump's approval dropped quite low in year 1 but he recovered nearly 5 points by the midterms.
That wasn't enough to give him an actual good approval but a second-year pre-midterm recovery is pretty unusual. Most presidents decline in advance of the midterms
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