John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Columnist and chief data reporter @FinancialTimes | Stories, stats & scatterplots | Senior fellow @LSEdataScience | john.burn-murdoch@ft.com

Nov 5, 2021, 8 tweets

NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

And the picture worsens as we move further east.

In central Europe, cases were a fraction of UK levels over summer, but have now rocketed past, with ICU occupancy and deaths also climbing fast.

Vaccine coverage is generally lower here than in western Europe.

In eastern Europe, the situation is dire.

Romania, Bulgaria & Latvia all set new records for daily deaths in recent weeks, and deaths are 10x current UK levels.

In much of western Europe it can feel like the pandemic is an echo of its past self. Try telling that to the east

If we extend our gaze even further east, *11 countries* have set new records for Covid deaths in the last few weeks.

It genuinely stops you in your tracks. Think back to December 2020, and a dozen countries are now going through that or worse, a year after vaccines came on line.

Here’s our story on what this all feels like on the ground. A huge team effort including @GuyChazan @labboudles @clivecookson @Elbarbie @rmilneNordic @davideghiglione @danieldombey @JamesShotter @mdunai @donatopmancini ft.com/content/c08951…

An important nuance to what we’re now seeing in western Europe:

Earlier waves over summer were mainly confined to the young since older groups were protected by the vaccine, but the current wave is rippling through all age-groups, hinting at waning immunity.

This is remarkably similar to what we saw in Israel in the summer, when — just like in western Europe now — around 5 months had passed since most older adults’ second dose.

Of course one difference here is that vaccine coverage in western Europe is now at similar levels in all age-groups, and we would expect that alone to reduce the youth-skewed case distribution.

Nonetheless, seeing strong rises across all age-groups is a problem.

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