Context: This is an incredibly disingenuous plot that conceals an absurdly broad age range (10-59!) to falsely suggest vaccinations increase death. What's going on is >85% of people in their 50s are vaccinated (incl. 94% high risk) and 0% under 12 are. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…
Older people just die more of heart disease and other conditions in general. When one group is mostly under 25 and another group is mostly over 40, the second group will have more deaths.
Breaking the data into smaller age ranges, it turns out that every group 18+ has lower mortality rates when vaccinated. (Image from @BottomleyFiona.)
ONS explains this in their footnotes. But if I'm honest, I wish they would make their data a little bit more idiot-proof by not presenting such broad ranges that illustrate Simpson's Paradox. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
A good thread on Simpson's Paradox and this bad take in particular.
The wrongest man on the pandemic either doesn't know about Simpson's Paradox or (more likely) cynically assumes his audience won't understand that a group twice as old has higher mortality than the median unvaccinated 20-year old.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.