Is decoupling likely to happen? To find out, here is a thread summary of my third and final lecture for The Norwegian Society for the Conservation of Nature.
(Spoiler alert: the answer is no).
THREAD/
1/ The first limit to greening growth has to do with declining rates of Energy Returns on Energy Invested (EROI), meaning that it takes more and more energy to obtain energy.
2/ And for the economists out there who will argue that the energy sector is not that important because it’s only a small part of GDP, read this paper.
3/ Capitalism is a like a trampoline: efficiency gains do not solve the problem if they rebound into more resource use and emissions.
4/ Here are a few examples of rebound effects.
5/ If you think services can grow forever without any material consequences, think again.
6/ Services are not immaterial.
7/ Circular economy, yes please. But good luck trying to make a circular economy grow (it won’t).
8/ There are a few reasons why a circular economy cannot grow forever, and this is my favourite.
9/ TECHNOLOGY, the joker card for all green growth aficionados. Grow now, figure out ways to clean up later. But...
10/ But even that card quickly runs out of steam. First, not all innovation is eco-innovation. New technologies can also exacerbate old problems or even create new ones.
11/ Second limit: eco-innovation is not enough. We also need “exnovation,” that is for new, cleaner technologies to replace old ones. This is not always happening.
12/ Final reason why technological change is limited: it is (way) too slow, and getting slower.
13/ So, put these five limits together, plus the fact that there has been barely any decoupling so far, and you get one solid insight: growth can’t be greened.
14/ If you want to watch the whole lecture, it’s here:
END THREAD/
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