Why did the demographic transition, essential condition for development, took hold in π«π· more than 100 years earlier than in any other country?
My #JMP uses crowdsourced genealogies to comprehensively document the decline in fertility & identify its origins for the first time π§΅
Why does it matter? Without an escape from the Malthusian trap, no sustained growth is possible
ππ The hockey stick graph! ππ
The historical fertility transition first took hold in France *in the 18th century*, before the French Revolution and more than a century earlier than in any other country π€
What caused this event is still one of the "big questions of history" (Darnton, 1978) because
1οΈβ£ It challenges most explanations: π«π· was a poor, illiterate, rural country
2οΈβ£ Data limitations: only a few case studies in rural placesβno census or comprehensive data at the time π€·π»ββοΈ
π¨π»βπ«β‘οΈ My JMP leverages crowdsourced genealogical data from publicly available trees on geni. com to comprehensively document the demographic transition in π«π·
β‘οΈ The decline in fertility took hold in the 1760s, mind-blowingly early and slightly earlier than previously thought π€―
Of course, I carefully evaluate selection and compare observables in the genealogies to the best available representative data and census when available. There is a >95% correlation with representative series! π
- Urbanization and life expectancy π
- Fertility π
Only available data to compare genealogies to
1οΈβ£ census after 1851 (π«π· & π¬π§) most comprehensive
2οΈβ£ family reconstitution in small N of rural places (π«π· & π¬π§) very selected
3οΈβ£ extraction of aggregate statistics in large N of places (dashed, only π¬π§) much better
So, the decline in fertility took place exceptionally early. But why? π€
My hypothesis: secularization! π
In aggregate-level evidence, relying on the work of historians (esp. M. Vovelle), I document an important process of secularization that took hold at the same time in π«π·
β‘οΈ With dechristianization (in the mid-18th century!) the Catholic Church lost influence and could not oppose fertility controlβcoitus interruptusβanymore π ββοΈ βͺοΈ
Time series of secularization using data on wills π
In the second part of the paper, I document a particularly strong and robust cross-sectional correlation between secularization and fertility
Both 1οΈβ£ at the department level using census data (obviously with censoring), and 2οΈβ£ at the individual level using the genealogies
In line with the aggregate-level evidence, I estimate that a full secularization 1οΈβ£ delays the transition by more than a century, and 2οΈβ£ decreases fertility by more than one child per woman
Then, using distribution regressions with the individual-level genealogical data, I show that secularization affected most the largest families π
(see this wonderful thread )
Finally, using the genealogies allows me to account for unobserved institutional and geographical factors with a range of standard strategies applied to this setting β¬οΈ
Some (not me π) would even say to establish causality π
1οΈβ£ I show that secular places did not have greater fertility before! (~ DiD)
2οΈβ£ I study second-generation migrants in the genealogies by tracing migration between districts in France at the time (βοΈ) β> secularization captures persistent cultural norms and beliefs
You can download the paper here π bit.ly/BlancJMP2
I hope this 𧡠has convinced you that this event was a turning point in human history. Thanks for your attention!
To conclude, some more anecdotes/implications:
1οΈβ£ Had population growth in π«π· followed π¬π§'s, there would be ~250M inhabitants in π«π· today!
2οΈβ£ Spolaore & Wacziarg show that the limitations of fertility adopted in π«π· spread in Europe along linguistic/cultural lines β> ππ
3οΈβ£ Although England was the cradle of the Industrial Revolution: *SAME* rate of growth of real GDP per capita in π«π· and π¬π§ after 1760 π
- π¬π§: let's get richer by producing more and inventing stuff
- π«π·: hold my π· let's have less kids π
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