Thread by @JMehta65

Thread on Arvind Kejriwal's desperate promises of freebies in poll bound sensitive states..
*Background*
Since his arrival on political scene, Kejriwal's target states have been, Delhi and Punjab..Ofcourse, he was also trying to capture Haryana, Utterakhand, Goa and Gujarat
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However, his main focus was mainly Delhi..The national capital..After winning, Delhi assembly elections for the second time in February 2015, he diverted his entire focus & resources on winning Punjab elections in February 2017..He received funding from overseas Khalistanis.
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Many of us here, have not observed the motives behind Kejriwal's aim to capture Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Gujarat..Why is Kejriwal focusing all his energy and spending huge resources on winning assembly elections in the above mentioned states?
Punjab and Gujarat share+
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+ borders with Pakistan..Uttarakhand shares borders with China & Goa is situated near Arabian sea..Also, Goa has highest per capita income in entire India.
In the forthcoming assembly elections in February/March' 2022, Kejriwal is desperate to win, Punjab, Uttarakhand & Goa.
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There is a very high anti-incumbancy against the incumbant governments especially due to Covid induced lockdown for a long period. People have lost their livelihoods and financially very bad shape..AAP is untested party in all these states..Due to all this,+
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Kejriwal has sensed an opportunity to go for the kill..That's why he is offering many freebies, which if implemented fully, will ruin the finances of Punjab, Uttarakhand & Goa..
Through this thread, I am going to analyze financial implications of freebies offered by Kejriwal
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*State of Punjab*
₹1,000 to every 18+ woman.
As per 2019, election commission data, Punjab had 98,29,916 females above 18+ age.
As per Kejriwal's promise, all these 98,29,916 women above 18+ age, will receive ₹1,000 every month.
98,29,916x₹1,000 = ₹983 crores per month.
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Therefore, per year outgo on this handout would be:
₹983x12 = ₹11,796 crores..

300 units of electricity free to every household in Punjab.
There are 71.75 lakh house holds in Punjab which has electricity connections.
Average tariff for 0 to 300 units is ₹3.13 per unit..
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Monthly subsidy outgo will be,
₹3.13x300x71.75 l = ₹673.7 crores.
Annual subsidy outgo will be,
₹673.7x12 = 8,084.79 crores.
Additionally, Kejriwal has promised to continue scheme of free power to farmers in the state..Total subsidy outgo on this,is more than 6,500 crores
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Total subsidy outgoing on free electricity per year will be,
8,084.79 + 6,500 = ₹14,584.79 crores..
Add to that, Kejriwal has promised to waive off, ₹1,500 crores of outstanding dues for electricity..
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In addition to ₹1,000 p.m handout to 18+ age women, 300 units of free electricity to each household, Kejriwal has promised healthcare free of cost..Establishing 16k mohalla clinics will cost ₹3,200 crores..Opertnl cost for running 16k Mohalla clinics will be ₹6400 crores
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Let's see financial condition of Punjab,
Total annual revenue is between 75k to 80k crores.
Total annual expenditure is between 150k to 170k crores..
Outstanding debt burden on Punjab is 2.82 lk crores.

How will Kejriwal fund additional freebies worth ₹32,780 crores p.a.?
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*State of Uttarakhand*
Unemployment allowance of ₹5,000 to every unemployed, per month.
There are 9 lakh registered unemployed youth in Uttarkhand..
Per month,
₹5,000x9 l = ₹450 crores.
Therefore, annual outgo on unemployment allowance will be,
₹450x12 = ₹ 5400 crores.
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300 units of electricity free to every household in Uttarakhand..There are 13l house holds in Uttarakhand which are eligible under this scheme.
Average tariff for 0 to 300 units slab is, ₹4.10 per unit..
Monthly subsidy outgo will be,
₹4.10×300x13 l = ₹159.90 crores..

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Annual subsidy outgo will be, ₹159.90x12 = ₹1918.80 crores.
Apart from promising 300 units of free electricity every month, Kejriwal has also promised to offer free electricity to farmers of the state..Not stopping here, he has also promised to waive off outstanding bills
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These may again run into thousands of crores, subsidy outgo.
Let's see financial condition of Uttarakhand,
Total annual revenue is 37k to 43k crores..Total annual expenditure is 46k to 53k crores..
Outstanding debt burden on Uttarakhand is 85,486 crores..State govt is+
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+taking loans amounting to 300-400 crores every month to pay off salaries, pensions & other expenses..

How will Kejriwal fund additional freebies worth ₹7,500 crores p.a?
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*State of Goa*
Arvind Kejriwal has promised to pay ₹3,000 per month to unemployed in non mining sectors, ₹5,000 per month to those who became unemployed due to mining ban..₹5,000 per month to those in tourism sector, who became unemployed due to Covid..

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There are about 1 lakh unemployed people due to mining ban in Goa..Kejriwal promised to pay each of them, ₹5,000 per month allowance.
Per month,
₹5,000x1 l = ₹50 crores..
Therefore, annual outgo on unemployment allowance, will be,
₹50 croresx12 = ₹600 crores..
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Like wise, there are lakhs of people who have become unemployed in tourism sector due to Covid..Though exact numbers are not known, out of 5 l people employed in tourism sector..If we were to take a conservative figure of 2 l people who are unemployed in tourism sector+
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+ then, each of them will be paid, ₹5,000 per month as an unemployment allowance..
Per month,
₹5,000x2 l = 100 crores.. Therefore, annual outgo on unemployment allowance in this sector will be,
₹100 croresx12 = ₹1,200 crores.
Similarly, there are 1 l job seekers+
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+who have recently registered with employment exchange..Assuming that half of them are from mining and tourism sectors, only half of them that is, 50k people are seeking jobs in other sectors; to whom Kejriwal has promised to pay, ₹3,000 per month as unemployment allowance
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Per month,
₹3,000x50k = ₹15 crores..
Therefore, annual outgo on unemployment allowance in rest of the sectors will be,
₹15 croresx12 = ₹180 crores..
Total cost of unemployment allowances per year, will be,
₹600 crores + ₹1,200 crores ++₹180 crores
= ₹1,980 crores.

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Another freebie offered in Goa is, 300 units of electricity FREE to every household..
There were 3,43,611 households in the year 2011..Assuming this number to have increased to 3.70 lakhs in 2021..Hence, 3.70 l households are eligible under this scheme..

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Average tariff for 0 to 300 units slab is, ₹2.05 per unit..
Monthly subsidy outgo will be, ₹2.05x300x3.70 l = ₹22.75 crores..
Annual subsidy will be,
₹22.75x12 = ₹273 crores..

Kejriwal has also promised FREE electricity to farmers of the state..

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Not stopping here, Kejriwal has offered to waive off outstanding electricity bills amounting to ₹413 crores too..

In addition to these freebies, Kejriwal has also promised FREE pilgrimage to religious places..New hospitals and Mohalla clinics..

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There is no estimate of expense which will be incurred on these freebies.
Let's see financial condition of Goa,
Total annual revenue is 15k to 17k crores..Total annual expenditure is 19k-21k crores..
Total debt burden is 18,844 crores..On a tiny state this is heavy burden.

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Interestingly, last year, Kejriwal's #AAP had promised to offer 200 units of electricity per month to every household in Goa..Now, on the election eve, he has enhanced 200 units of electricity every month to 300 units every month..

There is no explanation given for this..

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Like wise, Kejriwal is promising to restart mining projects within 6 months of his party assuming power, in Goa..

However, same Kejriwal and his party workers were opposing #coalprojects exactly one year back.

Btw, mining ban has been imposed by the Supreme Court of India
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Question is what will Arvind Kejriwal do to fulfill all his lofty Freebies..
1) Will he totally forget about these freebies, once his party wins the assembly elections?There is a precedent he has established in Delhi..Majority of promises given by him have been forgotten.

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2) Fulfill a few promises & ask for Central Govt aid to fulfil his remaining promises..
3) Blame Central Govt for his failure to fulfil his promises..

Or worst, he will ruin financial conditions of crucial border states viz.Punjab, Uttarakhand & Goa.

BEWARE of Kejriwal.

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