Thread by @ncdave4life

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady Oh, come on, you surely know those figures are unreliable.

Look at the range of values for "measured" solar insolation! To get net TOA flux you need that to be exact, AND you must subtract total emissions from the Earth, which are even HARDER to measure.
sealevel.info/Kopp2014_summa…

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 2/7》Source of that claim is @Willard1951's habit of neither critically examining climate claims, nor actually reading the papers he cites. This is from Loeb et al, the paper he took the graph from, and erroneously cited as proving a "0.8 to 1 W/m^2" radiative imbalance (EEI):

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 3/7》p.2 "As noted in detail in Loeb, Doelling, et al. (2018), EEI is a small (∼0.15%) residual of much larger radiative fluxes that are on the order of 340 W m−2. Satellite incoming and outgoing radiative fluxes are presently not at the level of accuracy required to resolve…"

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 4/7》 "…such a small difference in an absolute sense."

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20….

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 5/7》Loeb et al was about the trend in EEI, not its absolute value. CERES did not measure a 0.8 - 1 W/m² EEI. Rather Loeb assumed that EEI, and "applied an offset to the satellite EEI" to make it consistent with the weakly evidenced ocean heat content "in situ estimate."

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 6/7》What's more, even the scale was was poorly constrained. To find their barely-statistically-significant "trend for the net CERES TOA energy flux is 0.50 ± 0.47 W m⁻² decade⁻¹" they had to relax the confidence interval from the usual 2σ = 95% to only 90%.

@Willard1951 @EthonRaptor @Robert76907841 @TWTThisIsNow @IngersolRobert @flyonthewall182 @FillmoreWhite @PaulAtBillabong @NonlinearDarren @RobMeekel @Data79504085 @B_Bolshevik100 @JohnDublin10 @EricWil06256732 @Climatehope2 @glinch72 @AristotleMrs @Mark_A_Lunn @BridgetHolmstro @S_D_Mannix @BrknMan @Stephen90045069 @Ceist8 @FChecker76 @dan613 @ammocrypta @GregTruman4 @Jaisans @GregCoo85844909 @25_cycle @don85375 @ZSRenn @1tsakeeper @LizHersch1 @KCTaz @JustThi30117912 @gregchoat @Anvndarnamn5 @NickMcGinley1 @cieloyla @BradPKeyes @JSegor @jwickers @0Sundance @PeterMayfitz @omahas @TonyBoloni8 @TheDisproof @DanCady 7/7》From comparing Radiative Imbalance to other climate parameters, it's clear a realistic estimate is about 0.3 W/m². To reach NASA's 0.6 W/m² estimate you must accept several improbably extreme parameter estimates. >0.6 is simply not plausible.
sealevel.info/radiative_imba…