Thread by @ashishkjha

The conversation about the coming Omicron wave vacillates between

OMG -- Omicron will be cataclysmic

to

I'm done with this pandemic and have moved on

Neither is helpful

A middle course can help navigate this complex time without massive disruptions or a lot of deaths

Thread

First, lets get on the same page

We should expect a large wave of infections

Likely gathering steam in late December peaking sometime in mid January

And likely falling quickly to low numbers by end of February

This is about the next 2 months

What should our goal be?

2/6

Given how transmissibility of Omicron

It'll be hard to suppress infections without very large restrictions

There is neither appetite for big restrictions

Nor do I think needed

So what should our goal be?

Saving lives, keeping hospitals functional, schools open

as starters

So how do we do that?

First boosters are important for everyone

They are lifesaving for older and high-risk folks

Best guess?

40%-50% of high-risk folks (nursing home residents, elderly, etc) not boosted

Huge problem

Boosting them will save lives, keep hospitals functional

Next

Folks will travel, see family/friends this holiday season

Use of rapid tests can make things safer

Tests are becoming cheaper, more available. Slowly

Problem is both supply & demand

Yes, need more, cheaper tests

We also need to encourage more use of tests we have

5/7

Avoiding large unmasked crowds

Not ideal to have a large indoor holiday party with eating, drinking

I enjoy them but its a luxury we can avoid this year

You know what's not a luxury?

Seeing family & friends

That we can enjoy

Especially if folks vaxxed & we use testing

5/8

Masking in places with large surges

Encouraging mask wearing is weirdly political

Masks work

Tying them to hospital capacity makes sense

Act early when hospitals start filling. Fine to pull back when pressure on hospitals eases

They are one more tool in our toolbox

6/8

And begin deploying test to stay

If wave is big

We’ll need a strategy to avoid disruptive quarantines in school and work

test and stay helps

Will require lots of tests, which are coming

We will want to use test and stay in schools, work places, etc

7/8

So here's the bottom line:

Omicron is here

We'll see lots of infections

Boosted folks will largely do fine

Others will get infected at high rates

Unvaccinated and high risk folks with breakthroughs will be at risk for hospitalizations

So our strategy should be.....

8/9

Boost every adult, especially high risk

Use lots of rapid tests

Encourage masks in high-risk public indoor spaces

Use test and stay to keep kids, workers safe in school/work

And be prepared for a complicated and disruptive January

End