Thread by @DrZoeHyde

The omicron variant is NOT mild.

Hospitalisations are 40-45% less likely than with the delta variant (imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…), but the delta variant is >2x more severe than the original strain (cmaj.ca/content/193/42…).

The omicron variant is AT LEAST as bad as the 2020 virus.

But the omicron variant is far more transmissible, and our vaccines don’t work as well against it.

This means that an omicron variant epidemic will infect far more people than a delta variant epidemic would.

In practical terms, this means the omicron variant is MORE dangerous than the delta variant.

I modelled what would happen if either of these variants were allowed to spread in Western Australia with only a *double-dose* vaccination level of 90% (i.e., hardly any third doses).

Delta variant epidemic:

📈 120,000 symptomatic infections
🏥 3,000 hospitalisations
🤒 5,000 long COVID cases
💀 800 deaths

Omicron variant epidemic:

📈 1,150,000 symptomatic infections
🏥 34,000 hospitalisations
🤒 70,000 long COVID cases
💀 11,000 deaths

So we can see that despite being less severe than the delta variant, an omicron variant epidemic could lead to more than 10 times as many hospitalisations, IF the virus were allowed to spread unchecked and IF third vaccine dose coverage remains low.

Governments must not give up trying to control COVID-19 and should adopt a #VaccinesPLUS strategy as a matter of urgency.

Vaccines, ventilation, HEPA air cleaners, better masks (KF94, P2/FFP2, N95), rapid tests, contact tracing, quarantine, financial support. We need it all.