Michael Mina Profile picture
Physician-Scientist, MD,PhD. Immunology, Epidemiology, Infectious disease, CSO, CMO. Past: Harvard Faculty. BlueSky @michaelmina.bsky.social

Jan 4, 2022, 7 tweets

Should @CDCgov reconsider guidance on isolation & add a Neg test? Yes!

Why?

Bc relationship between symptom start & peak virus load has changed!

Guidance must keep up accordingly.

To explain: I made a (tough to read) chart based on real experience of Prof. Kato @neurotheory

@CDCgov @neurotheory Here is the original tweet by @neurotheory showing this TERRIFIC Time course of tests.

@CDCgov @neurotheory I've written a bit more about this in a similar thread on Omicron, testing and symptoms.

3/

Also, symptoms are not a great indicator of infectiousness (just thinkg of a lasting cough that lingers, or congestion & headache that could indicate your body is killing the virus before it gets a chance to replicate)

Or the many with NO symptoms who ARE highly infectious!

4/

With COVID, you can be

Symptomatic & Infectious
Symptomatic & Pre-Infectious
Symptomatic & Post-Infectious
Symptomatic & Never infectious

Asymptomatic & Infectious
Asymptomatic & Pre-Infectious
Asymptomatic & Post-Infxous
Asymptomatic & Never Infxous

Why testing is crucial!
5/

On the other hand, a rapid antigen test is highly correlated to high virus load and infectiousness.

If you are positive on a rapid antigen test you are very likely to be infectious.

If you are *very* positive on a rapid antigen test you are likely to be very infectious

6/

Do Rapid Ag tests stay Pos long after ppl are infectious like PCR does?

No, Rapid Ag tests require LOT of protein to turn Pos. Unlike PCR theres no "magnifying" process

Only way for such a high amt of virus protein (to see a Pos by eye) is when a lot of virus replication

7/

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