Thread by @ReidStan

Blackout in effect in Kazakhstan again as new operations are underway by security forces. CSTO (Russian) troops also deployed. It's a big series of events, but also has me wondering what else is ahead as things continue to spiral...

One big question is what is the cost that the Kazakh government and Tokayev will pay for CSTO help, primarily from Russia. Over the years of covering Kazakhstan inside and outside the country, the Kazakhs were always clever about being able to keep some independence from Moscow..

Russia has always been influential there and both regimes are like-minded in many ways, but Kazakhs were able to hold their own line when it came to important issues, such as Crimea and turning the Eurasian Union into a deeper political project.

I recall being told once by a senior Kazakh official a funny story about the great lengths Kazakh diplomats and handlers went to make sure that Nazarbayev didn't have his photo op with Putin by a display for Crimea that Russian diplomats were trying to herd them towards

Other times on background, officials would mention how they resisted efforts to expand the Eurasian Union and block changes pushed by Moscow that would give it more authority over the bloc and political and economic influence on its members.

Given that Tokayev is essentially being proped up by Moscow now, it's hard to imagine them having much bargaining power in the future and Moscow is obviously going to push for concesisons when the time is right. It's a new era for Kazakhstan and the region.